Will Russia Capture Prymorske by 2026?: Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance of a Russian capture of the intersection in Prymorske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast at 6.0% — unlikely.
Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $117.8K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026? | 6.0% | -0.5 |
| Will Russia capture Prymorske by September 30, 2026? | 1.6% | +0.4 |
| Will Russia capture Prymorske by June 30, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The unlikely outcome dominates trading, while the remaining scenarios are long shots.
Context
The market sits at 6.0% having ranged from 6.0% to 17.5% over the period. The market resolves to 'Yes' when the ISW map shows the intersection shaded red under Russian control, provided the shading persists through at least one full daily update cycle. Even if the intersection is later retaken by Ukraine, a 'Yes' stands. A negotiated settlement that results in actual Russian control of the territory also triggers a 'Yes,' but a mere announcement of de jure transfer does not. If ISW data becomes permanently unavailable, DeepStateMap serves as a secondary source; if both fail, credible reporting may be used. Temporary map glitches are disregarded. The deadline for this capture is Jan 1, 2027. The primary drivers of the probability are the approaching deadline (Jan 1, 2027), the frequency and content of ISW map updates showing Russian advances toward or control of the intersection, and the prospect of a negotiated settlement that cedes actual control. Any indication that the intersection is about to be shaded red—or that it has been but the change must hold through the next update cycle—could shift the odds.
FAQ
What constitutes "capture" of the intersection?
The intersection is considered captured when any part of it is shaded red on the ISW map, and that shading persists through the next full daily update cycle.
What happens if the ISW map is unavailable?
If ISW is permanently unavailable, the market may resolve using DeepStateMap or, if both are unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting. Temporary glitches are ignored.
Can a negotiated settlement trigger resolution?
Yes, if Russia gains actual control of the territory through a settlement (not just a de jure announcement), it qualifies as a 'Yes' even if the ISW map does not shade the area red.
Does it matter if Ukraine later retakes the intersection?
No. Once the intersection is captured under the market's rules, any subsequent loss of control does not change the resolution to 'No'.
What if the shading appears but is removed quickly?
The shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If it disappears before then, it will not count.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice