Sep 13, 2026
Probability fell from 67.0% to 45.0% — a 22.0-point move over the past day.
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?: Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance of Russia capturing Rai-Oleksandrivka by year-end at 47.0%, making it the close to a coin flip outcome. Earlier deadlines are seen as less certain.
47.0%+3.0 pts 24h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?
Updated · Volume $184.7K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31? | 47.0% | +3.0 |
| Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by September 30? | 2.1% | -0.3 |
| Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The December 31 deadline is the clear front-runner, while September 30 remains a coin-flip proposition; other expiration dates are long shots.
Context
Sep 12, 2026
Probability fell from 65.5% to 48.5% — a 17.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 27, 2026
Probability fell from 82.0% to 75.5% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 26, 2026
Probability fell from 82.5% to 77.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 24, 2026
Probability rose from 78.0% to 83.0% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 23, 2026
Probability rose from 77.0% to 81.5% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 4, 2026
Probability fell from 73.0% to 62.0% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 1, 2026
Probability rose from 57.5% to 74.0% — a 16.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 31, 2026
Probability rose from 56.5% to 68.0% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 30, 2026
Probability fell from 66.5% to 58.0% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
The probability has fluctuated between 44.0% and 83.5%, currently standing at 47.0%. It has moved +3.0 pts in the last day and. This market resolves to 'Yes' if the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map shades the intersection at 48.810403°N, 37.851396°E in Rai-Oleksandrivka red, indicating Russian control, by the specified deadline. The shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If Russian forces gain actual control through a negotiated settlement, that also triggers a 'Yes,' though mere de jure announcements do not. Once the area is captured, subsequent loss of control does not flip the outcome. If ISW maps become unavailable, DeepStateMap serves as a backup, followed by credible reporting if both fail. The primary driver is ISW-reported progress near the intersection. The Jan 1, 2027 deadline acts as a hard stop; any confirmed Russian control before then settles the market. Shorter-dated outcomes, such as the September 30 contract, reflect nearer-term battlefield dynamics.
FAQ
How is Russian control verified for this market?
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) daily map is the primary source. The specific intersection must be shaded red, indicating assessed Russian control, advance, or gains, and that shading must persist through the next full ISW update cycle. Temporary glitches are ignored.
What happens if ISW does not publish an update?
If ISW skips a day, the red shading must remain until the next finalized ISW update is published. This ensures the control assessment is stable.
Does a ceasefire or peace deal affect the resolution?
Yes, if Russia comes into actual control of the territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, the market resolves to 'Yes' regardless of what the ISW map shows. A mere announcement of de jure control without actual control does not qualify.
What if Russia loses the area after capturing it?
Once the intersection is captured and the market resolves to 'Yes', any subsequent loss of control is not considered. The resolution is final.
What types of ISW map shading count?
Only red shading that represents 'Assessed Russian Control', 'Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine', or 'Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours' qualifies. 'Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine' does not count.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice