Sep 7, 2026
Probability rose from 17.0% to 30.0% — a 13.0-point move over the past day.
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by December 31?: Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance that Russia captures Serhiivka by December 31 at 27.5%, a a substantial minority view, with traders monitoring the ISW map for the specified intersection to be shaded red.
27.5%+1.0 pts 24h
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by December 31?
Updated · Volume $84.2K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Serhiivka by December 31? | 27.5% | +1.0 |
| Will Russia capture Serhiivka by May 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia capture Serhiivka by April 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia capture Serhiivka by July 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The headline scenario dominates, with the remaining outcomes all priced as long shots.
Context
Sep 6, 2026
Probability rose from 9.5% to 19.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 1, 2026
Probability fell from 19.0% to 8.0% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 31, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 16.5% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 30, 2026
Probability fell from 21.5% to 19.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 27, 2026
Probability rose from 16.0% to 21.5% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 20, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 18.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 18, 2026
Probability fell from 31.0% to 17.0% — a 14.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 17, 2026
Probability fell from 31.0% to 20.5% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 1, 2026
Probability fell from 41.0% to 37.0% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
The market’s assessment has shifted over time. It currently stands at 27.5%, having traded as low as 8.0% and as high as 31.0%. Resolution hinges on the ISW map. The market will resolve to Yes if, by Jan 1, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the intersection at 48.313021° N, 36.925497° E is shaded red, indicating Russian control, and that shading persists through the next full ISW daily update cycle. Any continuous shading reflecting Russian control, advance, or gains qualifies; infiltration areas do not. If Russia gains control via a negotiated settlement, that also resolves to Yes, regardless of the map. Once captured, any later loss of control is ignored. The primary driver is the ISW’s daily map updates. Traders track whether the intersection approaches red shading and whether it persists. The deadline of Jan 1, 2027 11:59 PM ET is the cutoff. In addition, any announcement of a negotiated settlement that leads to actual control would move the market sharply.
FAQ
What constitutes a 'capture' for this market?
The intersection at 48.313021° N, 36.925497° E must be shaded red on the ISW map, indicating Russian control, and that shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
What if the ISW map shows a temporary shading error?
Temporary glitches or errors in the map are not considered; the shading must be continuous and appear in a finalized ISW update.
Can a negotiated settlement trigger a Yes resolution?
Yes, if Russia actually takes control of the territory as part of a settlement, it resolves to Yes, regardless of whether the ISW map reflects it.
What if Russia captures the intersection but then loses it before the deadline?
Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control is irrelevant. The market resolves to Yes at the moment of capture.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice