Will Russia Capture Sofiivka? Odds & Probability

The market sits at 79.5% right now, having traded between 49.0% and 76.0% over the period. It has moved +3.0 pts over the past day. This market resolves based on whether the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map shades a specific intersection in Sofiivka (48.494433° N, 37.377320° E) red by December 31, indicating Russian control. For the ‘Yes’ outcome to trigger, any part of the intersection must show continuous red shading through a full ISW daily update cycle, using categories like ‘Assessed Russian Control’ or ‘Assessed Russian Advance’ — but not ‘Assessed Russian Infiltration’. A negotiated settlement that results in actual Russian control on the ground also qualifies, even without a map change. Once capture is established, later recapture by Ukraine does not reverse the resolution. If the ISW map becomes unavailable, DeepStateMap serves as a backup; if both fail, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Temporary map glitches are ignored. The December 31 deadline is the primary focus; any ISW map update showing a sustained red shade on that intersection before then would resolve the market ‘Yes’. Conversely, if the map remains clear or shows only infiltration by that date, the outcome fails. A formal settlement handing actual control to Russia would also flip the resolution, irrespective of map coloration. The availability of ISW’s mapping, and the possible shift to backup sources, are procedural factors that could affect confidence.