Sep 7, 2026
Probability fell from 6.5% to 2.4% — a 4.1-point move over the past day.
Will Russia Capture Stavky? Market Probability
Prediction markets give Russia a 3.0% chance of capturing the intersection at Stavky by Oct 1, 2026. The outcome hinges on ISW's control map, which must show persistent Russian control of the exact coordinates.
3.0%+0.2 pts 24h
Will Russia capture Stavky by September 30?
Updated · Volume $128.1K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Stavky by September 30? | 3.0% | +0.2 |
| Will Russia capture Stavky by July 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The headline outcome—capture by September 30—dominates trading, with other expiry dates drawing only minimal interest.
Context
Sep 6, 2026
Probability fell from 7.0% to 3.5% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 11, 2026
Probability fell from 25.5% to 16.0% — a 9.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 10, 2026
Probability fell from 25.5% to 11.5% — a 14.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 2, 2026
Probability rose from 24.0% to 36.0% — a 12.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 1, 2026
Probability rose from 17.5% to 24.5% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 31, 2026
Probability rose from 11.5% to 28.0% — a 16.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 30, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 18.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 20, 2026
Probability fell from 22.0% to 19.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 19, 2026
Probability rose from 18.0% to 23.0% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
The probability has stayed a long shot for some time, currently 3.0%. It has fluctuated between 2.3% and 17.5% over the period. A +0.2 pts point move in the past day point to a market that sees little reason to reprice aggressively. For a 'Yes' resolution, the ISW map must shade the specified intersection red—indicating assessed Russian control, advance, or recent gains—and that shading must survive through the next full ISW daily update cycle. Infiltration areas do not count. If Russia gains control via a negotiated settlement, actual control must be established; a mere announcement of de jure transfer is not enough. Once the intersection is captured, any later loss of control is ignored. The countdown to Oct 1, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET is the binding deadline. Traders watch for Russian advances near Stavky that could alter the ISW map, though changes must pass the persistence test. The map's daily cadence means a single flash of red that disappears before the next update cycle will not trigger resolution. Should ISW become unavailable, DeepStateMap or, in extremis, a consensus of credible reporting would be used.
FAQ
What counts as 'capture' for this market?
The market resolves 'Yes' if the ISW map shows the specified coordinates shaded red, indicating assessed Russian control, advance, or gains, and that shading persists through one full daily update cycle. Infiltration areas do not qualify.
What happens if ISW skips a daily update?
The red shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of how many days that takes. A temporary glitch or a single-day flash that disappears by the next update does not count.
Could a negotiated settlement trigger a 'Yes'?
Yes, if Russia gains actual control of the territory through a settlement—not just de jure recognition—and that control is established, it qualifies regardless of the ISW map.
What if Russia captures and then loses the intersection?
The market resolves only on the initial capture. Any subsequent loss of control after capture is irrelevant.
What are the alternative resolution sources?
If the ISW map is permanently unavailable, DeepStateMap may be used. If both are unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting will determine the outcome.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice