Sep 1, 2026
Probability rose from 66.0% to 99.8% — a 33.8-point move over the past day.
Russia Capturing Toretske: Market Probability
Prediction markets price the chance that Russia captures a specific intersection in Toretske, Donetsk Oblast, by September 30, 2026, at 100.0% — a near-certain.
100.0%
Will Russia capture Toretske by September 30, 2026?
Updated · Volume $161.1K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Toretske by September 30, 2026? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Russia capture Toretske by October 31, 2026? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Russia capture Toretske by April 30, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Russia capture Toretske by May 31, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Russia capture Toretske by July 31, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Russia capture Toretske by March 31, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Russia capture Toretske by February 28, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
The “Yes” outcome dominates the market, while the remaining scenarios are all long shots.
Context
Aug 31, 2026
Probability rose from 35.5% to 97.0% — a 61.6-point move over the past day.
Aug 31, 2026
Probability rose from 66.0% to 86.5% — a 20.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 24, 2026
Probability fell from 76.0% to 65.0% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 23, 2026
Probability rose from 57.5% to 63.0% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 22, 2026
Probability rose from 0.0% to 57.5% — a 57.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 20, 2026
Probability rose from 29.5% to 40.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 19, 2026
Probability rose from 26.5% to 38.0% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 12, 2026
Probability fell from 40.0% to 31.5% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 10, 2026
Probability fell from 40.0% to 37.5% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
The headline probability has moved in a range from 26.5% as its floor to 100.0% as its peak.. Trading volume sits at $161.1K. Resolution hinges on whether Russia controls the intersection at 48.494901° N, 37.365342° E according to the ISW map by the deadline. The intersection is considered captured if any part of it is shaded red on that map — indicating Russian control, advances, or gains — and the shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. Infiltration areas do not count. If the ISW map is unavailable, DeepStateMap may serve as a backup, with credible reporting as a last resort. Temporary map glitches are ignored. The resolution date is Nov 1, 2026. Beyond that, a negotiated settlement transferring actual control of the territory would also lead to a “Yes” outcome, though not a mere de jure announcement. Once control is established, a later loss does not reverse the result. These formal conditions — the map, the deadline, and the persistence rule — are what a trader would watch for any shift in the market’s assessment.
FAQ
What does the market consider as capturing the intersection?
Any part of the intersection appearing in red on the ISW map, including assessed Russian control, advances, or gains, qualifies. Infiltration areas are excluded.
How long must ISW show Russian control to count?
The red shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If a day is skipped, it must remain until the next finalized update.
What if the ISW map becomes unavailable?
DeepStateMap is the alternative source. If both are permanently gone, a consensus of credible reporting is used.
Does a peace deal count as capture?
Only if Russia actually takes control of the territory as a result of the settlement. A mere announcement without de facto control does not.
What happens if Russia seizes the intersection but later loses it?
The market resolves “Yes” as soon as control is first established; subsequent losses are irrelevant.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice