Sep 11, 2026
Probability rose from 1.3% to 4.8% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Will Russia Capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31?: Odds & Probability
The chance that Russia seizes the intersection in Verkhnia Tersa sits at 2.3%—a long shot. The market resolves on Oct 1, 2026 based on whether the ISW map shows Russian control.
2.3%+0.2 pts 24h
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by September 30?
Updated · Volume $112.8K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by September 30? | 2.3% | +0.2 |
| Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by May 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The market focuses on the 'Yes' outcome, currently a long shot; all other possibilities remain negligible tail risks.
Context
Sep 10, 2026
Probability fell from 11.5% to 3.6% — a 7.9-point move over the past day.
Aug 31, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 17.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 30, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 17.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 25, 2026
Probability rose from 19.0% to 22.5% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 24, 2026
Probability fell from 26.0% to 19.0% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 19, 2026
Probability fell from 39.5% to 25.0% — a 14.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 18, 2026
Probability rose from 9.0% to 31.5% — a 22.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 18, 2026
Probability rose from 9.0% to 28.5% — a 19.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 9, 2026
Probability fell from 27.0% to 8.5% — a 18.5-point move over the past day.
Markets currently price the 'Yes' outcome at 2.3% — a long shot. It has traded between 1.1% and 28.0% over its lifespan. The market will resolve to 'Yes' if the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map shades the specific intersection at 47.696500°N, 36.082206°E in Verkhnia Tersa red by 11:59 PM ET on July 31. The shading must indicate assessed Russian control, advance, or gains and must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. A negotiated settlement that transfers actual control of the territory also qualifies, even without a red map designation, but a mere de jure announcement does not. Once Russia captures the area, any subsequent loss of control does not affect the outcome. If ISW data become permanently unavailable, DeepStateMap or credible reporting may be used. The number will move primarily in response to battlefield developments around Verkhnia Tersa as reflected on ISW maps. With the deadline of Oct 1, 2026, any confirmed Russian advance that shades the intersection would push the probability sharply higher. Conversely, time passing without change leaves the 'Yes' scenario as a long shot. The resolution source’s daily update cycle means that even a temporary shading must survive a full cycle to count, adding a layer of patience to the contract.
FAQ
What exactly needs to happen for the market to resolve 'Yes'?
The ISW map must shade the intersection at 47.696500°N, 36.082206°E red, indicating Russian control, advance, or gains, and that shading must remain through the next full daily update. Alternatively, a negotiated settlement that transfers actual control qualifies.
Does a temporary shading count?
No; the shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, it must last until the next finalized update.
What if Russia captures the intersection but later loses it?
Once captured, any subsequent loss of control does not change the resolution. The market will have already settled to 'Yes'.
Could other data sources be used?
Yes, if ISW maps become permanently unavailable, DeepStateMap may be used, and failing that, a consensus of credible reporting.
What does 'Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas' mean for resolution?
That category does not count; only 'Assessed Russian Control', 'Advance', or 'Gains' qualify.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice