Aug 1, 2026
Probability fell from 60.0% to 55.5% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31? Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price the chance that Russia captures the Vodianske intersection by December 31 at 22.5%, with settlement based on ISW map updates.
22.5%0.0 pts 24h
Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?
Updated · Volume $132.7K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31? | 22.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia capture Vodianske by September 30? | 3.6% | +0.1 |
The December 31 deadline is the dominant contract by volume and liquidity; shorter-dated contracts that require capture by September 30 remain priced much lower.
Context
Jul 30, 2026
Probability fell from 60.0% to 55.0% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 29, 2026
Probability rose from 45.5% to 57.5% — a 12.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 27, 2026
Probability fell from 57.0% to 43.0% — a 14.0-point move over the past day.
The market is currently a substantial minority view, with the probability sitting at 22.5%. and 0.0 pts over the last day. The contract resolves to “Yes” if the ISW map shades the intersection at 48.410003° N, 37.102845° E red, indicating Russian control, and that shading persists through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, the shading must hold until the next finalized update is published. Actual control gained via a negotiated settlement also counts, provided it is not merely de jure. The primary resolution source is the ISW map; DeepStateMap serves as a fallback, and a consensus of credible reporting as a last resort. Temporary map glitches are ignored. Once capture is established, any subsequent loss of control does not affect the resolution. What would move the number: Each ISW map update that alters control zones near the coordinates can shift the odds. News that a negotiated settlement might hand Russia actual control of the area, or conversely, Ukrainian counter-offensives that push the line back, also matter. The approaching Jan 1, 2027 deadline concentrates attention on whether progress matches the calendar.
FAQ
How is “capture” defined for this market?
The specified intersection must be shaded red on the ISW map, indicating Russian control (Assessed Russian Control, Assessed Russian Advance, or Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours). Infiltration areas do not qualify. The shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
What happens if ISW does not publish a map on a given day?
If ISW skips a day, the red shading must remain until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
What if Russia gains the territory through a negotiated settlement?
If Russia comes into actual control of the area as a result of a negotiated settlement, it qualifies for a “Yes” resolution, even without red shading on the ISW map. However, an announcement that grants de jure control without actual control does not count.
What if Russia captures the intersection but then loses it before the deadline?
Once Russia captures the intersection (as defined above), any subsequent loss of control is irrelevant. The market would resolve to “Yes”.
What sources are used to determine the outcome?
The primary source is the ISW Ukraine map. If it becomes permanently unavailable, DeepStateMap may be used. If both are unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting will serve as the resolution source.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice