Will Russia Enter Dobropillia? Probability & Odds

The probability has oscillated within a range from 12.5% to 83.5% since the market launched, The latest figure, 94.0%, is consistent with a finely balanced assessment—neither side’s advance dominates traders’ expectations. Resolution & Rules: The market resolves to 'Yes' if the ISW map shows any part of Dobropillia under Russian control by January 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Control is indicated by shaded layers on the ISW interactive map, including assessed infiltration areas, control, advances, or gains in the past 24 hours. The shading must appear through a full ISW daily update cycle. Once a qualifying condition is met, any later shift in control does not change the resolution. A negotiated settlement that grants actual territorial control (not just de jure) also triggers a 'Yes', even without map shading. If ISW becomes unavailable, DeepStateMap may serve as the resolution source, with a consensus of credible reporting as a final fallback. What Would Move the Number: Formally, the probability could shift as the resolution date Jan 1, 2027 approaches without a triggering event, or if battlefield reporting suggests that Russian forces are closing in on Dobropillia’s outskirts. The market could also react to any update in the ISW map’s shaded layers or to evidence of negotiated control being implemented on the ground.