Aug 14, 2026
Probability rose from 4.0% to 6.5% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Will Russia Enter Havrylivka? Prediction Market Odds
Bettors give a 3.6% chance that Russian forces will be recorded as entering the village of Havrylivka in the coming months, a prospect the market ranks as a long shot.
3.6%0.0 pts 24h
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by September 30, 2026?
Updated · Volume $142.6K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Russia enter Havrylivka by September 30, 2026? | 3.6% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia enter Havrylivka by May 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia enter Havrylivka by March 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia enter Havrylivka by July 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia enter Havrylivka by February 28, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia enter Havrylivka by April 30, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The September 2026 entry scenario commands almost all market attention; the remaining expiry scenarios are long shots.
Context
Aug 13, 2026
Probability fell from 11.5% to 4.0% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
The contract’s implied probability has. Resolution hinges entirely on the ISW map. Any part of Havrylivka (48.072788° N, 36.523524° E) must appear under Russian control, infiltration, advance, or gains shading for it to count—and that shading must persist through a full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW misses a day, the shading must last until the next published update. Once a qualifying event occurs, any Russian withdrawal later does not reverse a ‘Yes’ resolution. Territorial control gained through a negotiated settlement also qualifies, but a purely de jure declaration of control is not enough. Should the ISW map become permanently unavailable, DeepStateMap serves as the fallback source; if both fail, a consensus of credible reporting is used. The primary market driver remains new ISW battle-map updates. No scheduled announcements or diplomatic milestones mechanically trigger a resolution—only the appearance of sustained Russian shading over the village can do so. The deadline for a qualifying event is Oct 1, 2026.
FAQ
What precise map criteria trigger a ‘Yes’?
Any continuous shading labeled ‘Assessed Russian Control’, ‘Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine’, ‘Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine’, or ‘Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours’ that covers any portion of Havrylivka and survives one full ISW update cycle.
Does a ‘Yes’ hold if Russia later pulls back?
Yes. The first qualifying capture event locks in a ‘Yes’ resolution, regardless of subsequent battlefield reversals.
What if the ISW map is not updated for several days?
The shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published; a skipped day does not break the requirement.
Can a negotiated territorial handover resolve the market?
A negotiated settlement that gives Russia actual control over Havrylivka counts, even if ISW does not shade it. A mere announcement of de jure sovereignty does not.
What happens if ISW stops publishing maps?
DeepStateMap becomes the primary source. If both are permanently unavailable, credible reporting consensus is used.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice