Jul 24, 2026
Probability fell from 43.0% to 37.5% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Will Russia Enter Khatnie by Dec 2026? Odds & Probability
The probability that Russian forces capture territory in Khatnie, Kharkiv Oblast, by December 31, 2026 is 22.0%, a a substantial minority view in prediction markets. The contract hinges on ISW map shading confirming Russian control before the deadline.
22.0%+0.5 pts 24h
Will Russia enter Khatnie by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $207.3K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Russia enter Khatnie by December 31, 2026? | 22.0% | +0.5 |
| Will Russia enter Khatnie by July 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia enter Khatnie by March 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia enter Khatnie by April 30, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia enter Khatnie by May 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia enter Khatnie by February 28, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The outcome where Russia enters Khatnie by the deadline trades at a substantial minority probability; all other scenarios are long shots.
Context
Jul 23, 2026
Probability fell from 42.5% to 37.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 20, 2026
Probability rose from 27.0% to 41.5% — a 14.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 19, 2026
Probability rose from 25.0% to 58.5% — a 33.5-point move over the past day.
The market price is 22.0%, with a a substantial minority view assessment that Russia will enter the village. Trading has spanned a range from 21.0% to 36.5% since the contract launched. Total volume reached $207.3K USD. The market resolves to Yes if the ISW map depicts any part of Khatnie (coordinates 50.121266° N, 37.565909° E) under Russian control or advance layers by Jan 1, 2027 ET. The qualifying shading—from any of the four categories: 'Assessed Russian Control', 'Assessed Russian Advance', 'Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas', or 'Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours'—must persist through one complete ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, the shading must hold until the next finalized update. A negotiated settlement that grants Russia de facto control of the area triggers a Yes regardless of map status, but a mere announcement of de jure transfer does not. Once a qualifying condition is met, subsequent loss of control is ignored. Temporary map glitches are disregarded, and if ISW is unavailable, DeepStateMap or credible reporting serves as the fallback source. The formal parameters that determine the outcome are the ISW map as of the Jan 1, 2027 deadline and the persistence rules. The market's price reflects the perceived likelihood that ISW will register Russian control in Khatnie before that date, either through military advances or a settlement establishing de facto control.
FAQ
What qualifies as Russia entering Khatnie?
The ISW Ukraine map must shade any part of the village under one of four designated Russian control or advance layers, and that shading must persist through at least one full ISW daily update cycle.
What happens if ISW ceases operations?
The market then relies on DeepStateMap; if both are permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting is used.
Does a negotiated settlement count?
Yes, if it results in actual Russian control of Khatnie, even without ISW shading. An announcement of de jure sovereignty alone is not sufficient.
Are temporary map glitches considered?
No, any transient errors or artifacts in the map display are disregarded.
What is the deadline for resolution?
The market resolves based on the ISW map status as of Jan 1, 2027 (ET).
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice