Sep 19, 2026
Probability fell from 10.5% to 3.2% — a 7.3-point move over the past day.
Will Russia Enter Krasnopillya by September 30? Latest Odds
Markets price the chance of Russian forces entering Krasnopillya by September 30 at 5.2%, making it unlikely. The contract is updated 5 min ago.
5.2%+2.0 pts 24h
Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by September 30?
Updated · Volume $89.0K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by September 30? | 5.2% | +2.0 |
| Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by July 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by April 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by May 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The headline question dominates trading, with all other outcomes long shots.
Context
Sep 18, 2026
Probability fell from 15.8% to 4.8% — a 11.1-point move over the past day.
Sep 16, 2026
Probability fell from 21.1% to 16.2% — a 4.9-point move over the past day.
Sep 15, 2026
Probability rose from 8.9% to 23.0% — a 14.1-point move over the past day.
Sep 14, 2026
Probability rose from 9.1% to 19.4% — a 10.4-point move over the past day.
At 5 min ago, the probability stands at 5.2%. It has traded as low as 2.8% and as high as 21.3% over the observed period. The last day saw a +2.0 pts move,
The market resolves 'Yes' if the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map shows any part of Krasnopillya (50.773956°N, 35.259777°E) shaded under layers indicating Russian infiltration, control, advance, or gains. The shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If Russia obtains actual control through a negotiated settlement, that also qualifies, regardless of ISW shading, though a de jure announcement alone does not suffice. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control is disregarded. If ISW is unavailable, DeepStateMap provides a fallback; if neither is permanently available, credible reporting is used. The resolution deadline is Oct 1, 2026. Until then, each ISW update is a potential trigger: any map showing the settlement under qualifying shading that survives the next full update cycle would resolve the market to 'Yes'. No other scheduled events or announcements directly force resolution.
FAQ
What map layers trigger a 'Yes' resolution?
Any continuous shading on the ISW map that falls under "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", "Assessed Russian Control", "Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine", or "Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours" qualifies.
How long must the shading be visible to count?
The shading must remain present through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, it must persist until the next finalized update.
What if Russia takes control through a deal?
If Russia gains actual control of Krasnopillya as part of a negotiated settlement, the market resolves to 'Yes', whether or not the ISW map shades the area. A de jure announcement without physical control does not count.
Can the outcome reverse after a 'Yes'?
No. Once a qualifying condition is met, any later loss of control by Russia is ignored.
What happens if the ISW map is unavailable?
The market falls back to DeepStateMap if accessible. If both are permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting determines the outcome.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice