Jul 28, 2026
Probability fell from 5.0% to 3.9% — a 1.2-point move over the past day.
Russia Enter Malokaterynivka by Dec 2026: Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance that Russia will enter Malokaterynivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the end of 2026 at 5.1%, a unlikely prospect.
5.1%-0.2 pts 24h
Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $287.8K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by December 31, 2026? | 5.1% | -0.2 |
| Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by February 28, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by May 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by March 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by April 30, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The headline outcome dominates the market, with the remaining scenarios all long shots.
Context
Jul 27, 2026
Probability fell from 5.3% to 3.8% — a 1.4-point move over the past day.
The probability sits at 5.1%. It has ranged from 4.9% to 16.7% over the observed period. Over the last day, it moved by -0.2 pts;
The market resolves to 'Yes' if any part of the settlement appears on the ISW map under a Russian control layer by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The shading must persist through the next full ISW update cycle to count; a temporary glitch does not qualify. A negotiated settlement that results in actual Russian control of the territory also triggers a 'Yes', but mere de jure recognition is insufficient. The primary resolution source is the ISW Ukraine map, with DeepStateMap as a backup if ISW is permanently unavailable. The main driver is territorial progress reported by ISW before the deadline of Jan 1, 2027. Any ISW map updates showing Russian advances, control, or infiltration in Malokaterynivka will directly affect the price. News about a possible negotiated settlement that includes actual control of the village would also move the odds.
FAQ
What counts as Russia entering Malokaterynivka?
Any shading on the ISW map that indicates Russian control, advance, gains, or infiltration within the settlement's boundaries, as long as it persists through a full update cycle.
What if ISW does not update the map for a day?
The qualifying shading must remain until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
Can a map error cause a 'Yes' resolution?
No. Temporary glitches or errors in the map are explicitly excluded from consideration.
What happens if ISW stops publishing?
The market rules name DeepStateMap as the backup source. If both are permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Does a peace deal count?
Only if it results in actual Russian control of the territory; an announcement of de jure recognition without de facto control does not qualify.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice