Jul 26, 2026
Probability fell from 5.5% to 4.0% — a 1.4-point move over the past day.
Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31? Odds & Probability
Prediction markets have settled Will Russia enter Moskovka by October 31 at 50.5%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Will Russia enter Moskovka by October 31Event concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $106.0K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Russia enter Moskovka by October 31? | 50.5% | -20.0 |
| Will Russia enter Moskovka by September 30? | 15.0% | -7.5 |
| Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia enter Moskovka by April 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia enter Moskovka by August 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia enter Moskovka by May 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Context
Jul 24, 2026
Probability fell from 16.5% to 5.0% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 17, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 11.5% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice