Jul 20, 2026
Probability rose from 4.9% to 6.3% — a 1.4-point move over the past day.
Will Russia Enter Mykhailivka by July 31? Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance of Russia entering Mykhailivka, Sumy Oblast, by July 31 at 22.0% — a substantial minority view for the 'Yes' outcome.
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by October 31Event concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $235.9K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by October 31? | 22.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by April 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by July 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by August 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The 'Yes' outcome remained a substantial minority view throughout, trading at 22.0% at last update, with the alternative resolutions priced as long shots.
Context
Jul 18, 2026
Probability fell from 24.3% to 6.5% — a 17.8-point move over the past day.
Jul 17, 2026
Probability rose from 7.6% to 22.1% — a 14.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 16, 2026
Probability rose from 0.7% to 18.4% — a 17.7-point move over the past day.
The market assessed the likelihood of Russia entering Mykhailivka, a settlement in Sumy Oblast, by Nov 1, 2026. Over the life of the contract, the price ranged from 20.0% to 51.0%. Over the last 24 hours, it moved 0.0 pts points. To resolve to Yes, the ISW map needed to show Russian control of any part of Mykhailivka under specific layers—Assessed Russian Control, Assessed Russian Advance, Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas, or Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours—and that shading had to persist through the next full ISW daily update. A negotiated settlement that handed Russia actual control of the settlement would also qualify, even without ISW shading. If the ISW map became permanently unavailable, the market could use DeepStateMap or, as a last resort, a consensus of credible reporting.
FAQ
What conditions are required for a Yes resolution?
The ISW map must show Russian control of any part of Mykhailivka under a qualifying layer (Assessed Russian Control, Advance, Infiltration, or Gains). That shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. Temporary glitches are ignored.
What if ISW is not available?
Then DeepStateMap can be used. If both are permanently down, a consensus of credible reporting is applied.
Can a peace deal trigger a Yes?
Only if Russia actually takes control of the settlement, not just announces a deal. Actual control on the ground, even without ISW shading, qualifies.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice