Aug 4, 2026
Probability rose from 76.5% to 95.9% — a 19.4-point move over the past day.
Will Russia enter Myrne by July 31, 2026? Latest Market Odds
Prediction markets have settled Will Russia enter Myrne by August 31, 2026 at 100.0%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Will Russia enter Myrne by August 31, 2026Event concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $69.2K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Russia enter Myrne by August 31, 2026? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Russia enter Myrne by March 31, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Russia enter Myrne by July 31, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Russia enter Myrne by May 31, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Russia enter Myrne by April 30, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
Context
Aug 3, 2026
Probability rose from 68.0% to 87.0% — a 19.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 2, 2026
Probability rose from 61.0% to 73.0% — a 12.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 1, 2026
Probability rose from 42.5% to 63.0% — a 20.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 31, 2026
Probability rose from 50.0% to 68.0% — a 18.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 29, 2026
Probability fell from 7.0% to 2.1% — a 4.9-point move over the past day.
Jul 28, 2026
Probability fell from 11.5% to 2.9% — a 8.6-point move over the past day.
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice