Jul 23, 2026
Probability rose from 35.0% to 99.4% — a 64.4-point move over the past day.
Will Russia Enter Novooleksandrivka? Market Odds & Probability
With the July 31 deadline now past, markets priced the likelihood that Russia had entered Novooleksandrivka at 100.0%, reflecting a near-certain outcome.
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by July 31, 2026Event concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $247.4K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by July 31, 2026? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by September 30, 2026? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by March 31, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by April 30, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
The near-certain pricing for the July 31 deadline also prevailed in the September 30 contract, while the remaining four expiry dates attracted negligible probability.
Context
Jul 23, 2026
Probability rose from 80.5% to 98.6% — a 18.1-point move over the past day.
Jul 22, 2026
Probability rose from 10.0% to 93.0% — a 83.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 22, 2026
Probability rose from 76.5% to 81.0% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 21, 2026
Probability fell from 80.5% to 76.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 20, 2026
Probability fell from 81.5% to 76.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 18, 2026
Probability rose from 77.0% to 83.0% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 17, 2026
Probability fell from 80.5% to 75.0% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 16, 2026
Probability rose from 72.5% to 81.0% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
The contract settles to Yes if the ISW map shades any part of Novooleksandrivka, Donetsk Oblast, under Russian control and that shading persists through a full update cycle. DeepStateMap serves as a fallback. Once control is established, subsequent changes do not matter. Final settlement is currently pending.
FAQ
How does the market determine if Russia entered Novooleksandrivka?
It resolves Yes when the ISW map shows any qualifying Russian control shading over the settlement coordinates (48.353724° N, 37.072518° E) that persists through the next full daily update.
What happens if the ISW map is unavailable?
DeepStateMap is used as the primary alternative. If both become permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reports may determine the outcome.
Does the market settle immediately when control is spotted?
No. The qualifying shading must survive through the next full ISW update cycle, ensuring the observation is not a temporary glitch.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice