Jul 24, 2026
Probability rose from 93.3% to 100.0% — a 6.6-point move over the past day.
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by September 30?: Odds & Probability
Markets price a near-certain chance that Russian forces seize territory in Novyi Donbas by September 30, giving a 100.0% probability. The contract resolves based on ISW mapping showing continuous Russian control of the area.
100.0%
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by September 30?
Updated · Volume $198.6K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by September 30? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by March 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by May 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by April 30? | 0.0% | — |
The headline outcome—Russia entering Novyi Donbas by September 30—is near-certain; the other resolution scenarios are all long shots.
Context
Jul 23, 2026
Probability rose from 44.0% to 98.8% — a 54.8-point move over the past day.
Jul 22, 2026
Probability rose from 44.0% to 54.0% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 17, 2026
Probability rose from 39.5% to 43.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 16, 2026
Probability rose from 37.0% to 42.0% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
The probability now stands at 100.0%. The market resolves to "Yes" if, according to ISW maps, Russian forces capture any part of Novyi Donbas, Donetsk Oblast (48.450718° N, 37.181238° E), between market creation and September 30. Capture is indicated by shading on the ISW map reflecting assessed Russian infiltration, control, advances, or gains in the past 24 hours. The shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. A temporary gain that reverses before the next update does not count. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control is disregarded. If ISW maps become unavailable, DeepStateMap may be used; if both fail, a consensus of credible reporting applies. A negotiated settlement would also qualify if it results in actual Russian control, not merely a de jure claim. The primary drivers are developments in Russian military operations around Novyi Donbas as captured in ISW daily assessments before September 30. A verified change in control on the ISW map would resolve the market. The approach of the end date without such a change would weigh on the "Yes" price.
FAQ
What is the primary resolution source for this market?
The primary source is the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine map. The market resolves to 'Yes' if that map shows Russian capture of Novyi Donbas territory.
What counts as a qualifying capture?
Any part of Novyi Donbas shaded under layers indicating assessed Russian infiltration, control, advances, or gains in the past 24 hours qualifies, provided the shading persists through the next full ISW daily update.
What happens if ISW maps become unavailable?
DeepStateMap may be used as a fallback. If both are permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may determine the outcome.
Does a negotiated settlement count?
Yes—if Russia gains actual control of the territory as a result, it qualifies even without ISW shading. A mere announcement of de jure control does not count.
What if Russia briefly enters but then withdraws?
The controlling condition is ISW shading that persists through the next daily update cycle. A brief entry that reverses before the next ISW update would not count.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice