Sep 5, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 19.0% — a 1.0-point move over the past day.
Will Russia Enter Pokrovskoe by 2026?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets currently see a 15.5% chance that Russian forces will enter the settlement of Pokrovskoe by December 2026, a view shaped by the pace of territorial gains reflected in ISW mapping.
15.5%-0.5 pts 24h
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $103.8K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31, 2026? | 15.5% | -0.5 |
| Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by February 28, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by May 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by April 30, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by March 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The headline scenario—Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31, 2026?—remains the market’s focus at 15.5%; the other four outcome contracts are all long shots.
Context
Sep 4, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 19.0% — a 1.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 1, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 21.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 31, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 24.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 4, 2026
Probability fell from 27.0% to 18.5% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 3, 2026
Probability fell from 26.0% to 16.5% — a 9.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 31, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 21.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 31, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 23.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 27, 2026
Probability rose from 19.0% to 24.5% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 26, 2026
Probability fell from 30.5% to 19.0% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
The probability has settled at 15.5% in recent trading. It has swung between 11.0% and 24.5% over its lifetime, shifting -0.5 pts in the past day. Resolution depends on the Institute for the Study of War’s (ISW) daily Ukraine map. The contract pays “Yes” if, by the market’s close on Jan 1, 2027, any territory within the defined settlement of Pokrovskoe (47.984559° N, 36.228316° E) shows persistent shading under ISW layers that denote Russian control, advance, gains, or infiltration. The shading must survive through the next full ISW update cycle; one-off glitches do not count. Once a qualifying entry is recorded, any subsequent Ukrainian recapture does not reverse the outcome. A handover of actual control through a negotiated peace deal also triggers a “Yes”—mere de jure transfer does not. Should the ISW map become unavailable, the market shifts to DeepStateMap, then to a consensus of credible journalism. For now, the price reflects how traders weigh the pace of Russian advances in the Donetsk–Dnipropetrovsk border area. The contract’s fixed horizon, Jan 1, 2027, adds a temporal yardstick: as the deadline nears, the odds compress around each new map update. Any unambiguous ISW-certified territorial change—or a credible path to a settlement that transfers ground control—would sharply realign the number. In the absence of such triggers, the market tends to drift with the rhythm of frontline reporting.
FAQ
What qualifies as Russian forces entering Pokrovskoe?
Any sustained shading on the ISW map covering part of Pokrovskoe (47.984559° N, 36.228316° E) under layers that indicate Russian infiltration, control, advance, or recent gains. The shading must persist through at least one full ISW daily update cycle to be valid.
If Russian forces enter but then withdraw, does the market still resolve to “Yes”?
Yes. Once a qualifying territorial entry is recorded on the ISW map and confirmed through a full update cycle, the outcome is locked. Subsequent loss of control does not revert the resolution.
How is the market resolved if the ISW map is unavailable?
The primary source is the ISW’s interactive Ukraine map. If that becomes permanently unavailable, the market relies on DeepStateMap. Should both become inaccessible, resolution falls to a consensus of credible reporting sources.
Could a peace deal that formally gives Russia the region trigger a “Yes”?
Only if actual Russian control is established on the ground. A purely legal or diplomatic transfer without physical presence does not qualify. But if a settlement leads to real control, that counts even if it never appears on the ISW map.
Do temporary map errors or glitches affect the market?
No. The resolution criteria explicitly exclude one-off glitches. The relevant shading must be stable through the next full ISW update cycle to be considered.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice