Jul 23, 2026
Probability rose from 24.5% to 98.9% — a 74.4-point move over the past day.
Will Russia Enter Svitle by September 30? Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price the chance of Russian forces entering Svitle by September 30 at 100.0%, a reading that reflects near-certain.
100.0%
Will Russia enter Svitle by September 30?
Updated · Volume $181.5K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Russia enter Svitle by September 30? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Russia enter Svitle by March 31? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Russia enter Svitle by April 30? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Russia enter Svitle by June 30? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Russia enter Svitle by May 31? | 0.0% | — |
The market focuses on the September 30 deadline, with other timeframes attracting negligible interest.
Context
Jul 22, 2026
Probability rose from 24.0% to 34.0% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 18, 2026
Probability rose from 25.0% to 36.5% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
The probability that Russia enters Svitle by the end of September currently stands at 100.0%. The market resolves 'Yes' if the ISW daily map shows any Russian control shading over Svitle by September 30, Eastern Time. The relevant shading layers include Assessed Russian Control, Advance, Gains, and Infiltration Areas. For a signal to count, the shading must persist through the next full ISW update cycle. If control is established at any point before the deadline, it locks in the 'Yes' outcome even if later lost. A negotiated handover that results in actual Russian control also qualifies, though a paper agreement alone does not. The primary resolution source is ISW's interactive map, with DeepStateMap and credible reporting as fallbacks. The main pressure point is the approaching deadline: the market resolves based on the situation by Sep 30, 2026. Any new shading that appears on the ISW map—capturing even a sliver of Svitle—would shift the probability sharply. Conversely, a lack of map changes as the date nears would push it downward. The fallback to alternative data sources is a technical factor that could introduce uncertainty if ISW stops updating.
FAQ
What counts as Russian entry into Svitle?
Any shading on the ISW map under layers indicating Russian control, advance, or infiltration, lasting through one ISW update cycle.
How does the map update cycle work?
ISW publishes daily updates. Shading must persist from its first appearance through the next full update; if a day is skipped, until the next finalized update is published.
What if Russia takes Svitle but then loses it?
Once the condition is met—persistent shading appears—the ‘Yes’ outcome is locked in, regardless of later reversals.
What if the ISW map becomes unavailable?
DeepStateMap serves as a backup. If both are permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible media reporting can be used.
Does a peace deal count?
Only if it results in actual Russian control of the territory, not merely a de jure recognition or announcement.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice