Jul 29, 2026
Probability fell from 6.9% to 3.7% — a 3.2-point move over the past day.
Will Russia Enter Ternuvate Again? Odds & Probability
Prediction markets have settled Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by October 31 at 100.0%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by October 31Event concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $638.1K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by October 31? | 100.0% | +0.5 |
| Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by April 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by March 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by July 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by August 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by February 28? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by May 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Context
Jul 27, 2026
Probability rose from 4.0% to 9.4% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 26, 2026
Probability fell from 5.5% to 3.9% — a 1.6-point move over the past day.
Jul 24, 2026
Probability rose from 3.5% to 6.1% — a 2.6-point move over the past day.
Jul 23, 2026
Probability fell from 7.5% to 3.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 22, 2026
Probability fell from 6.5% to 4.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 18, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 10.0% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 17, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 15.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 16, 2026
Probability fell from 25.5% to 19.0% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice