Jul 22, 2026
Probability rose from 12.5% to 80.0% — a 67.5-point move over the past day.
Will Russia Enter Vasylivka by July 2026? Odds & Probability
Prediction markets have settled Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026 at 100.0%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026Event concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $207.0K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Russia enter Vasylivka by March 31, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Russia enter Vasylivka by April 30, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
Context
Jul 20, 2026
Probability fell from 26.5% to 15.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 20, 2026
Probability fell from 32.0% to 22.0% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 18, 2026
Probability fell from 47.0% to 37.0% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 17, 2026
Probability rose from 37.5% to 46.0% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 16, 2026
Probability rose from 33.5% to 41.5% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice