Iran Regime Fall by Sept 2026: Prediction Market Odds
Prediction markets give a 0.5% chance that the Islamic Republic collapses by Oct 1, 2026, a effectively ruled out scenario requiring the dissolution of key clerical institutions.
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The 'Yes' outcome is a long shot, with the market heavily favoring the regime's continuation.
Context
To resolve 'Yes,' the Islamic Republic's core structures must be dissolved or replaced. The market requires consensus reporting that the Supreme Leader's office, Guardian Council, or IRGC clerical control no longer govern the majority of Iran's population. Routine politics, internal coups preserving the system, or partial territorial losses do not qualify. The deadline is Oct 1, 2026. Any event signaling a fundamental break—such as a revolutionary council seizing power—would raise the probability. Continued regime administration or mere political turmoil keeps it subdued.
FAQ
What counts as the Iranian regime falling?
It requires that the Islamic Republic no longer governs, with core institutions like the Supreme Leader's office dissolved or replaced. A new constitution or provisional government would qualify.
Would a military coup trigger a 'Yes'?
Only if the coup dismantles the clerical system. If it merely changes leadership while preserving the Islamic Republic's structures, it does not.
Does the market consider partial loss of territory?
No, the regime must lose de facto power over the majority of the population. Rebel control of some areas is not enough.
How is the resolution determined?
By a consensus of credible reporting, assessing whether the conditions in the market description have been met.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice