Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give a regime change in Iran only a unlikely probability, currently 6.5%.
Updated · Volume $25.3M
With the market pricing regime change as unlikely, the prevailing expectation remains that the Islamic Republic endures through 2026.
Context
The market-implied probability for a regime change in Iran before the end of 2026 sits at 6.5%, reflecting an assessment that such an outcome is unlikely.. Resolution turns on whether the Islamic Republic ceases to govern by Jan 1, 2027. That requires a broad reporting consensus that core structures—the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority—have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different system. Routine political events do not qualify, nor do internal coups that preserve the regime’s framework. Partial territorial losses or exile-group challenges are insufficient unless the regime no longer administers a majority of the population. The formal deadline is the market’s close at the end of 2026. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting; no single incident automatically triggers settlement unless that consensus emerges.
FAQ
What events would resolve this market to “Yes”?
The Islamic Republic must be overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise cease to govern, with its core institutions—such as the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, or IRGC control under clerical authority—dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different system.
Do elections or political reforms count?
No. Routine political changes, elections, reforms, or leadership successions that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures do not qualify.
What about coups or internal power shifts?
An internal coup or power shift that leaves the Islamic Republic’s fundamental framework intact does not trigger a Yes. Only a clear break in continuity, such as a new provisional government or revolutionary council replacing the Islamic Republic, qualifies.
How is the outcome determined?
The market resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting. If broad reporting agrees that the regime no longer exercises sovereign power, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice