Iran Regime Collapse Before 2027: Latest Odds & Probability
Prediction markets currently price a 9.5% probability that the Islamic Republic of Iran’s ruling regime collapses or is overthrown by December 31, 2026. Trading volume on the event exceeds $21.8 million.
Updated · Volume $22.0M
The market implies a 90.5% chance that the Islamic Republic survives through 2026, and a 9.5% chance it collapses or is overthrown before then.
Context
The market asks whether the Islamic Republic of Iran’s core governing structures cease to rule before 2027. For a “Yes,” reporting must show that the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, and IRGC clerical control have been dissolved, incapacitated, or otherwise lost effective power over a majority of the population. A revolution, civil war, military coup, or abdication could qualify, but only if the Islamic Republic’s fundamental architecture is displaced. Routine elections, reforms, leadership succession, or coups that preserve the existing clerical system all resolve to “No.” Partial territorial losses or rebel challenges do not count unless the regime no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population. The 9.5% probability implies about one-in-ten odds that a terminal regime break occurs within roughly three years. It reflects a market consensus that collapse is unlikely, but not negligible. The $21.8 million in trading volume lends weight to the number—participants are staking real money, not simply offering opinions. Among geopolitical prediction markets, this level of volume signals broad engagement and reasonably efficient price discovery. The spread of outcomes is binary: the Islamic Republic either persists through the end of 2026, or it does not. The current price embeds a collective judgment that the regime’s institutional resilience is strong enough to survive the defined period, while leaving room for rare, high-impact events. As new information emerges, the price can move, serving as a live summary of changing views on regime stability. At 9.5%, the market leans heavily toward continuity, but the non-zero probability acknowledges that even entrenched systems can fail abruptly.
FAQ
What counts as the Iranian regime falling?
The resolution criteria require a broad consensus of credible reporting that the Islamic Republic’s core institutions—the Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, and IRGC under clerical authority—have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different system, and no longer hold de facto power over a majority of the Iranian population.
What if the regime loses some territory but not most of the population?
Partial territorial loss or challenges from rebel or exile groups do not trigger a “Yes” resolution. The regime must cease to administer the majority of Iran’s population for the market to resolve in the affirmative.
How is the 9.5% probability calculated?
It is derived from the last trading price of shares that pay out if the regime falls. A price of 9.5 cents indicates that the market collectively estimates a 9.5% chance of that outcome.
Why does the trading volume matter?
Higher volume indicates a more liquid market with real-money stakes, which tends to produce more reliable probability signals. The $21.8 million in volume suggests that this market is taken seriously by participants who follow Iranian politics.
Would a coup inside the regime cause a “Yes”?
Only if the coup dismantles the core structures of the Islamic Republic and replaces them with a fundamentally different governing order. A coup that preserves the clerical system would resolve to “No.”
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice