Sep 22, 2026
Probability rose from 13.5% to 22.5% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
UNSC Resolution on US-Iran Deal: Probability
As of 14 min ago, prediction markets price the chance of a UN Security Council resolution endorsing a final US-Iran deal by December 31 at 21.0%. That outcome remains a substantial minority view.
21.0%+7.5 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $250.5K
The headline Yes outcome is priced as a substantial minority view, leaving No as the more likely outcome.
Context
Aug 27, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 16.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 26, 2026
Probability rose from 15.0% to 21.5% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 19, 2026
Probability fell from 21.0% to 13.5% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 18, 2026
Probability fell from 21.5% to 7.0% — a 14.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 15, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 23.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 14, 2026
Probability fell from 22.5% to 18.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 20, 2026
Probability rose from 26.5% to 37.0% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 17, 2026
Probability rose from 23.5% to 35.5% — a 12.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Can the US and Iran reach a lasting deal to end the conflict? — Al Jazeera
The probability of a UNSC resolution has moved as new information emerges. It now sits at 21.0%, having traded between 11.5% and 25.5% over its lifetime. The market resolves to “Yes” if the UN Security Council adopts a resolution endorsing, approving, implementing, giving legal effect to, or incorporating the “final deal” that the US-Iran memorandum of understanding of June 14, 2026 contemplates. The resolution must be adopted by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The final deal is identified through the text of the resolution, official US or Iranian communications, or a consensus of credible reporting; the resolution’s adoption is determined by that same reporting consensus. The deadline is Jan 1, 2027. Developments that could shift the odds include official statements, draft resolutions, or diplomatic signals—particularly from Security Council members. The market ultimately hinges on whether credible reporting confirms a qualifying resolution by the cutoff.
FAQ
What needs to happen for the market to resolve to “Yes”?
The UN Security Council must pass a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates the “final deal” referred to in the June 14, 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding. This must occur before the deadline of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
What defines the “final deal”?
It is the diplomatic agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU, as identified through the resolution’s text, official statements by the US or Iran, or a consensus of credible reporting.
How is the resolution’s adoption verified?
By a consensus of credible reporting, meaning major news outlets and official sources agree that the Security Council has acted.
What happens if the UNSC does not act by the deadline?
If no qualifying resolution is adopted by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to “No.”
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice