Will the US Invade a Latin American Country in 2026? Odds
The probability of a U.S. invasion of a Latin American country in 2026 is 6.5% — a level markets consider unlikely. The market resolves by Jan 1, 2027.
Updated · Volume $277.1K
The market assigns a unlikely probability to an invasion, making 'No' the clear favorite with the rest of the probability mass.
Context
The contract has swung between 5.5% and 11.5% since trading began, currently sitting at 6.5%. Resolution hinges on whether the U.S. commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of land territory belonging to a Latin American country by the end of 2026. A consensus of credible reports serves as the resolution source, meaning the market will settle to 'Yes' if such an action is widely documented, and to 'No' otherwise. The list of qualifying countries includes Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti. The market will resolve at Jan 1, 2027 based on that consensus. Any military offensive meeting the definition before that date will count; otherwise the contract settles to 'No'. The probability is therefore sensitive to any information that alters the likelihood of such an event occurring within the window.
FAQ
What is the exact definition of an invasion for this market?
It requires the U.S. to commence a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of a qualifying Latin American country.
Which countries are included?
The contract lists Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti.
When does the market close?
Trading ends at Jan 1, 2027.
How will the market determine the winner?
The resolution source is a consensus of credible reports. If reputable media and official sources agree that a qualifying invasion occurred, the market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, to 'No'.
Does a cyberattack or a blockade count?
Only a military offensive aimed at establishing physical control over land territory qualifies. Non-territorial actions, no matter how hostile, do not meet the definition.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice