Will the U.S. Invade Colombia in 2026? Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price the likelihood of a U.S. military invasion of Colombia at 2.1%, a figure that puts the event in a long shot territory.
Updated · Volume $149.6K
The 'Yes' outcome is the market's focus, currently priced at 2.1%; the possibility of an invasion remains a long shot.
Context
Over the market's lifetime, the probability of a U.S. invasion. The market will resolve in favor of an invasion if the U.S. undertakes a military offensive to control Colombian land territory on or before the resolution deadline (Jan 1, 2027). Otherwise, it resolves against. Land that was de facto controlled by either country at the market's creation counts as its sovereign territory. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting. The conditions that could alter the market's assessment stem directly from these rules. The deadline is Jan 1, 2027. Any U.S. military action in Colombia that matches the description's offensive-control criteria would be factored in. The market may also adjust based on how events are covered by the consensus of credible reports.
FAQ
What qualifies as an invasion in this market?
A U.S. military offensive that aims to establish control over any part of Colombian land territory, as stated in the resolution criteria.
When does the market resolve?
It resolves once the outcome is clear, but no later than the deadline of Jan 1, 2027, based on whether the conditions were met before that time.
How is 'sovereign territory' defined?
Land that was under the de facto control of Colombia or the United States when the market was created is treated as that country's sovereign territory.
Who decides the final outcome?
A consensus of credible reporting sources, as specified in the market's description, determines whether an invasion occurred.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice