Will the U.S. Invade Cuba in 2026: Current Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance of a U.S. military invasion of Cuba by the end of 2026 at 7.5%, indicating such a scenario is unlikely. To trigger a 'Yes' resolution, the United States would need to commence an offensive aimed at controlling any Cuban land territory.
Updated · Volume $3.3M
The “Yes” outcome is seen as unlikely; the market overwhelmingly expects no invasion to occur before the deadline.
Context
This market resolves to 'Yes' if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by the resolution date of Jan 1, 2027. Land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States at market creation is considered sovereign territory. Otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. The resolution source is a consensus of credible sources. The market will settle based on whether an invasion meeting the stated definition occurs by Jan 1, 2027. The resolution source—a consensus of credible sources—will determine whether a qualifying military offensive has taken place.
FAQ
What definition of “invasion” does this market use?
A U.S. military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory.
What territory is considered Cuban?
Land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States at the time the market was created.
When does the market settle?
The resolution deadline is Jan 1, 2027.
Who decides whether an invasion occurred?
A consensus of credible sources serves as the resolution authority.
What happens if no invasion occurs by the deadline?
The market resolves to “No”.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice