Will the U.S. Invade Greenland in 2026? Odds & Probability
As of 5 min ago, prediction markets give a 3.1% chance of a U.S. invasion of Greenland, a prospect that remains a long shot.
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The 'Yes' scenario is a remote long shot, with the 'No' outcome overwhelmingly favored but not priced as a separate contract.
Context
The market has settled into a a long shot range for the likelihood of a U.S. invasion of Greenland, with the current probability standing at 3.1%. For a 'Yes' resolution, the United States must commence a military offensive aimed at establishing control over any part of Greenland's land territory, as defined by Denmark, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The market settles based on a consensus of credible reporting on whether such an event occurred. The probability will react to any credible signs that the U.S. is preparing or executing such an operation before the deadline. The resolution source—a consensus of credible reporting—means that conflicting reports could inject uncertainty, while a clear, documented offensive would quickly firm up expectations.
FAQ
What constitutes an invasion for this market?
The U.S. must commence a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Greenland's land territory.
What land territory is considered part of Greenland?
All territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark at the time the market was created.
How is the outcome determined?
By a consensus of credible reporting on whether a qualifying military offensive occurred by the deadline.
What is the deadline for an invasion to count?
The offensive must commence by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice