Will the US Invade Venezuela? Odds & Probability
Markets price the likelihood of a US military offensive in Venezuela at 5.5%, with the outcome tied to whether an invasion begins between September 6 and December 31, 2025.
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $14.2M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? | 5.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025? | 0.0% | — |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
The market views a US invasion as unlikely; the other three scenarios are long shots.
Context
The probability of the headline scenario, now 5.5%, has shifted slightly. In the last 24 hours it moved 0.0 pts,
The market settles to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any part of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it settles to "No". Land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the US as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET is treated as each country's sovereign territory. Resolution depends on a consensus of credible sources. Any event that alters the perceived odds of a US military offensive starting before the end of 2025—such as government announcements, credible news reports, or significant troop movements—could move the market. The final deadline for action is December 31, 2025, after which the outcome is assessed.
FAQ
What qualifies as an invasion under this market's rules?
A US military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuelan territory.
When must the invasion start for the market to resolve 'Yes'?
Between September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
How is the final outcome determined?
The resolution source is a consensus of credible news and official reports.
What if the US already holds territory in Venezuela before September 6, 2025?
Land controlled by either country as of that date is considered its sovereign territory, so any offensive to take control of new areas would count.
Does the offensive need to succeed?
No, the rule requires only that a military offensive commences with the stated intent; success is not a condition.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice