Will the U.S. Invade Venezuela? Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give a 3.9% chance to the United States launching an invasion of Venezuela by the end of 2026, with the contract settling based on whether a military offensive begins before the 2025 cutoff.
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $14.2M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? | 3.9% | 0.0 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The U.S. invasion scenario is the headline outcome, while other possible resolutions are all seen as long shots.
Context
The probability has remained in a long shot territory, with markets pricing it at 3.9%. The level moved 0.0 pts in the past 24 hours. The market resolves to 'Yes' if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Land de facto controlled by either country as of the start of the window is treated as sovereign territory. A consensus of credible sources determines whether the condition was met. Otherwise, the contract settles to 'No'. The formal trigger is the start of an offensive within that window. The window shuts on December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Any credible reporting of a qualifying action before then feeds into the price; absent such news, the market points towards a 'No' resolution after the deadline.
FAQ
What qualifies as an invasion in this market?
The market requires a U.S. military offensive aimed at gaining control over any part of Venezuela, as verified by a consensus of credible sources.
What is the timeframe for the offensive?
The offensive must begin between September 6, 2025, at noon ET and December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.
How are territorial borders defined?
Land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the U.S. as of September 6, 2025, at noon ET is considered that country’s sovereign territory.
Who decides the outcome?
The market operator uses a consensus of credible sources to determine whether the condition was met.
What happens if an offensive starts just before the deadline?
Any offensive commencing before 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2025, would satisfy the condition for a ‘Yes’ resolution.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice