Aug 11, 2026
Probability fell from 21.0% to 12.0% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado? Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance that Donald Trump endorses María Corina Machado for president of Venezuela at 6.5%, making it unlikely that he does so before the end of 2026. The market will resolve based on any public statement from Trump or his representatives.
6.5%0.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $114.8K
Only the 'Yes' outcome is tracked directly; the 'No' outcome makes up the balance and dominates the probability.
Context
Aug 5, 2026
Probability fell from 21.0% to 11.5% — a 9.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 4, 2026
Probability fell from 42.5% to 10.5% — a 32.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 3, 2026
Probability rose from 11.5% to 42.5% — a 31.0-point move over the past day.
The probability of a Trump endorsement of Machado has fluctuated between 6.5% and 12.0% and currently sits at 6.5%., showing little dramatic shift. Trading volume has reached $114.8K. The market will resolve to 'Yes' if, by Jan 1, 2027, Donald Trump publicly endorses or suggests María Corina Machado as Venezuela's state leader or president. If he instead endorses another individual, the market resolves immediately to 'No'. The resolution source is official information from Trump or his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting. The probability could shift on any statement from Trump or his team about Venezuelan leadership. The hard deadline is Jan 1, 2027, after which the market resolves to 'No' if no endorsement has occurred. A formal endorsement or suggestion of support for Machado would be sufficient for a 'Yes' resolution, while backing a rival would settle the market to 'No'. Without new developments, the market may gradually adjust as time passes.
FAQ
What counts as an endorsement in this market?
Any public statement from Donald Trump or his representatives that endorses or suggests María Corina Machado as Venezuela's state leader or president qualifies. The statement must be clear enough to be interpreted as an endorsement by consensus credible reporting.
What happens if Trump endorses someone else?
The market resolves immediately to 'No' upon such an endorsement, without waiting for the deadline.
When does this market close?
The official resolution deadline is Jan 1, 2027. If no qualifying endorsement has occurred by then, the market resolves to 'No'.
Who determines the outcome?
Resolution is based on official information from Trump or his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting. There is no central arbitrator beyond this standard.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice