Sep 6, 2026
Probability rose from 0.8% to 3.1% — a 2.4-point move over the past day.
Will Trump Talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? Odds
Markets price the chance of a talk between Donald Trump and Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31 at 3.5%, reflecting a long shot. The contract considers any in-person, phone, or video interaction as a qualifying talk.
3.5%-0.1 pts 24h
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31?
Updated · Volume $626.3K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? | 3.5% | -0.1 |
| Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by March 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by April 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by May 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The headline scenario overwhelmingly dominates trading, with all other outcomes priced as remote possibilities.
Context
Sep 5, 2026
Probability fell from 2.4% to 0.8% — a 1.7-point move over the past day.
Jul 16, 2026
Probability rose from 4.8% to 6.9% — a 2.1-point move over the past day.
Trading in this contract has seen the probability move within a range. Trading volume stands at $626.3K. The market resolves to 'Yes' if an interaction between Donald Trump and Mojtaba Khamenei occurs by Jan 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. A talk is defined as any in-person meeting, phone call, or video call. The resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting. The approaching December 31 milestone, the ultimate deadline of Jan 1, 2027, and any credible reports of a scheduled or impromptu conversation would move the market. As time passes without such reports, the probability may drift lower.
FAQ
How is a 'talk' defined in this market?
Any interaction between Donald Trump and Mojtaba Khamenei, whether in person, by phone, or via video call, qualifies as a talk.
What is the market's resolution source?
The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
When does the market close?
The market resolves after Jan 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on whether a talk occurred by that time.
Does a message passed through an intermediary count?
No. The rules specify direct interaction—in person, phone, or video call—so indirect communication would not trigger a 'Yes' resolution.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice