Aug 4, 2026
Probability fell from 43.5% to 14.5% — a 29.0-point move over the past day.
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31: Live Odds & Probability
Markets currently price the probability of a Trump visit to Greenland by year-end at 12.5%, an unlikely outcome. The broader market settles on whether he physically enters the territory by March 31, 2026.
12.5%-2.0 pts 24h
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?
Updated · Volume $294.7K
Across platforms
21.5 pt spreadWill Trump visit Greenland by December 31?
- Polymarket12.5%
- Kalshi34.0%
Matched automatically by question and resolution date. How we match.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31? | 12.5% | -2.0 |
| Will Trump visit Greenland by October 31? | 5.5% | -3.0 |
| Will Trump visit Greenland by September 30? | 1.8% | -0.3 |
| Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The December 31 visit scenario is unlikely, while the remaining outcomes—including a visit later in the timeframe—are effectively ruled out.
Context
Aug 2, 2026
Probability rose from 11.5% to 43.5% — a 32.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 1, 2026
Probability rose from 10.5% to 54.0% — a 43.5-point move over the past day.
Since inception, the contract's price has ranged from 9.5% to 16.5%. Over the past day, the probability adjusted by -2.0 pts. Total trading volume is $294.7K. The current level stands at 12.5%. To resolve as 'Yes,' Trump must set foot on Greenland's land or enter its territorial waters before the March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET deadline. Airspace overflights do not count. Settlement relies on official US government information, Trump's verified social media accounts, or a consensus of credible reporting—whichever confirms the event first. The probability hinges on whether a trip occurs by the December 31 interim date. No automatic triggers are built into the contract; the only binding condition is the visit itself. Any trip announcements, diplomatic developments, or verified social media posts could alter the price, but the resolution rests entirely on the factual occurrence of a visit.
FAQ
What counts as a visit to Greenland?
Trump must physically enter Greenland's land or territorial waters. Merely flying through Greenland's airspace does not qualify.
When does this market settle?
It settles after the March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET deadline, or sooner if a visit is confirmed before that.
How is the outcome verified?
Official US government channels, Trump's verified social media, or credible news reports. The earliest clear confirmation from one of these sources will be used.
Does a stop in Greenland's waters count?
Yes, entering maritime territory constitutes a visit, same as landing on land.
Why does the headline focus on December 31 instead of March 31?
The headline tracks the shorter-term probability of a visit by year-end, while the market's ultimate deadline extends to March 2026—capturing any later trip.
Data: Polymarket, Kalshi · Methodology · Not financial advice