Sep 2, 2026
Probability rose from 4.5% to 7.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Will UAE leave the GCC in 2026? Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price the chance of the UAE formally announcing its departure from the Gulf Cooperation Council at 6.0%, sitting firmly in unlikely territory.
6.0%0.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $100.9K
The base case—no withdrawal—dominates, leaving the exit scenario as an outside chance.
Context
Sep 1, 2026
Probability rose from 4.5% to 7.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 29, 2026
Probability rose from 4.5% to 7.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 23, 2026
Probability rose from 4.5% to 7.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 22, 2026
Probability rose from 4.5% to 7.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
As of 13 min ago, the probability stands at 6.0%. The market resolves to “Yes” only if the UAE government or an officially authorized entity clearly communicates a decision to withdraw from the GCC between market creation and Dec 31, 2026. A formal notice of denunciation or an equivalent official statement suffices; informal remarks, leaks, or unnamed sourcing do not. Should no such event occur, the market resolves to “No” at the deadline. The primary resolution source is official UAE or GCC information, though a consensus of credible reporting may be used if official channels are silent. The deadline of Dec 31, 2026 bounds all possible movement. Any official announcement that meets the criteria would settle the market immediately. The absence of qualifying news keeps the probability anchored at lower levels, with the date itself serving as the final backstop.
FAQ
How does this market determine a winner?
It resolves to “Yes” if the UAE officially announces its withdrawal from the GCC before the deadline; otherwise “No.”
What counts as an official announcement?
A formal statement by the UAE government or an authorised body, such as a notice of denunciation, that leaves no doubt about the intent to leave.
Do leaks or media reports count?
No. Only direct, official communications qualify. Rumours, unofficial briefings, or anonymous sources are disregarded.
What happens if the UAE announces withdrawal after the deadline?
The market only considers announcements made before the specified end date. A later move would not change the resolution.
How is the outcome verified?
Resolution relies first on official UAE or GCC statements. If those are unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting serves as the fallback.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice