Aug 31, 2026
Probability fell from 23.0% to 14.5% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
Ukraine Re-entering Kamianske: Market Odds & Probability
Traders assign a 5.5% chance that Ukrainian forces will re-enter Kamianske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by September 30, as tracked by ISW map shading.
5.5%-0.5 pts 24h
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by September 30?
Updated · Volume $85.9K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by September 30? | 5.5% | -0.5 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The September 30 deadline remains a meaningful scenario in the market; all other timing possibilities are remote long shots.
Context
Aug 30, 2026
Probability fell from 25.5% to 17.5% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 29, 2026
Probability rose from 15.5% to 25.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 21, 2026
Probability fell from 22.5% to 14.5% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 20, 2026
Probability fell from 23.0% to 14.5% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 12, 2026
Probability fell from 43.5% to 34.5% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 11, 2026
Probability rose from 35.5% to 43.5% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 10, 2026
Probability fell from 43.0% to 35.5% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 10, 2026
Probability rose from 33.5% to 43.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 9, 2026
Probability rose from 33.5% to 52.0% — a 18.5-point move over the past day.
The market prices the likelihood at 5.5%. The probability has fluctuated between 5.0% and 38.5% during the observed window. Resolution hinges on the Institute for the Study of War’s (ISW) map of Ukraine. A “Yes” result requires that, between market creation and the end date, any part of Kamianske (coordinates 47.543151° N, 35.368104° E) appears shaded under the “Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours” or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” layers and that the shading persists through the next full ISW update cycle. Temporary glitches are ignored. Once this condition is met, a subsequent reversal does not change the resolution. If a negotiated settlement gives Ukraine actual control of the area, that qualifies even without map shading—but mere de jure announcements do not. Should the ISW map become unavailable, DeepStateMap serves as the primary fallback; if both fail, a consensus of credible reporting is used. The only resolution trigger is a qualifying map update by Oct 1, 2026, or actual control through a settlement by that date. The absence of such a map change means the market stays unresolved until the deadline passes, at which point it settles to “No.”
FAQ
What exactly counts as Ukraine 're-entering' Kamianske?
The market resolves Yes if the ISW map shows any part of Kamianske (within the specified coordinates) as under Ukrainian control via its territorial gains layers, and that shading remains on the map for one full daily update cycle.
What happens if the ISW map is unavailable?
If the ISW map becomes permanently unavailable, DeepStateMap (deepstatemap.live) is used as the primary fallback. If both maps are unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting will determine the outcome.
Could a temporary map glitch cause a Yes resolution?
No. The shading must persist through the next full ISW update cycle. Temporary errors that are corrected before that cycle completes are disregarded.
What if a ceasefire returns the area to Ukraine without fighting?
If Ukraine gains actual control over Kamianske through a negotiated settlement, that qualifies as a Yes—even if the ISW map does not shade the area. However, a purely de jure announcement with no actual control does not.
Once Kamianske appears under Ukrainian control, can later losses change the outcome?
No. The market resolves Yes the moment the qualifying map condition is met and will not be reversed by subsequent events.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice