Sep 6, 2026
Probability fell from 24.0% to 10.5% — a 13.5-point move over the past day.
Will Ukraine Re-enter Myrnohrad? Live Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance of Ukraine retaking any part of Myrnohrad by Jan 1, 2027 at unlikely 8.0%, with the ISW conflict map serving as the primary resolution source.
8.0%-3.0 pts 24h
Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?
Updated · Volume $125.5K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31? | 8.0% | -3.0 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by May 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The market prices Ukraine's re-entry into Myrnohrad as unlikely; the alternative outcome—no such gains by the deadline—dominates the contract.
Context
Sep 5, 2026
Probability rose from 7.5% to 18.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Traders have priced this market at 8.0% as of 11 min ago, within a range that has stretched from 6.5% to 24.0% over the life of the contract.. The market resolves to “Yes” if the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map shows shaded Ukrainian control over any part of Myrnohrad, Donetsk Oblast, that persists through the next full ISW daily update cycle. A one-off map glitch will not qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, the market locks in, and any later loss of control is disregarded. A negotiated settlement that results in actual Ukrainian control also counts, provided control is established and not merely announced de jure. The primary resolution source is the ISW interactive map; if unavailable, DeepStateMap serves as a fallback, followed by a consensus of credible reporting. The number may shift around ISW map refresh cycles and as the resolution date of Jan 1, 2027 draws nearer. Any credible report of a negotiated settlement that puts Ukraine in actual control would also prompt re-evaluation.
FAQ
What does it mean to “re-enter” Myrnohrad?
It means Ukraine captures any territory within Myrnohrad, as shown by the ISW map layer for reported or claimed Ukrainian gains that persists through the next full daily update.
What if Ukraine captures territory but loses it before the deadline?
Once a qualifying shading appears and survives one full ISW update cycle, the market resolves “Yes” permanently. Subsequent losses do not affect the outcome.
How are ISW map glitches handled?
Temporary errors or brief shading that disappears before the next full update cycle are ignored. The market only counts shading that persists through at least one completed ISW daily update.
Does a peace deal or ceasefire trigger a “Yes” resolution?
Only if actual Ukrainian control of Myrnohrad is established as a result. De jure recognition without physical control does not count.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice