Sep 13, 2026
Probability fell from 43.0% to 39.0% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka? Odds & Probability
As of 15 min ago, markets give Ukraine a 40.5% chance of re-entering Obratne or Temyrivka by Jan 1, 2027 — a close to a coin flip proposition.
40.5%+1.5 pts 24h
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?
Updated · Volume $68.7K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31? | 40.5% | +1.5 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by September 30? | 6.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by March 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by April 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by May 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The market prices the chance that Ukraine re-enters Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31 as a tossup; the remaining outcomes are long shots.
Context
Sep 12, 2026
Probability fell from 40.5% to 39.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 9, 2026
Probability rose from 36.5% to 44.5% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 9, 2026
Probability rose from 36.5% to 43.5% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 5, 2026
Probability fell from 41.0% to 37.0% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 4, 2026
Probability fell from 43.0% to 38.5% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 19, 2026
Probability fell from 62.5% to 48.0% — a 14.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 18, 2026
Probability fell from 62.5% to 58.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 17, 2026
Probability rose from 59.5% to 62.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 16, 2026
Probability rose from 59.5% to 64.0% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
The headline probability has moved within a range of 36.5% to 64.0%. At 40.5%, the market assigns a close-to-even chance to Ukraine reclaiming either village. Resolution hinges on the ISW map: any Ukrainian-controlled shading within the specified coordinates that persists through the next full daily update qualifies as a 'Yes.' The coordinates pinpoint Obratne (47.827331° N, 36.548744° E) and Temyrivka (47.825114° N, 36.570672° E) in Zaporizhzhya Oblast. Once that condition is met, later loss of control does not flip the outcome. A negotiated settlement producing actual control also suffices, though a paper-based claim without de facto control does not. Temporary map glitches are ignored. The market's probability responds directly to the ISW update cycle. Any sustained shading pattern that meets the rulebook would shift expectations. The deadline is Jan 1, 2027.
FAQ
What exactly counts as control of Obratne or Temyrivka?
The ISW map must shade any portion of the specified coordinates as under Ukrainian control, with that shading remaining through the next full daily update cycle.
What if Ukraine captures the territory but then loses it again?
Once a qualifying condition is met, subsequent loss does not reverse a 'Yes' resolution.
Can a peace deal trigger resolution?
Yes, if a negotiated settlement results in actual Ukrainian control of the territory, regardless of map shading.
What if the ISW map is not available?
DeepStateMap is the secondary source; if both are unavailable, consensus reporting may be used.
Do temporary map glitches count?
No, the market specifically excludes temporary glitches or errors.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice