Aug 23, 2026
Probability rose from 4.5% to 7.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske? Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance of Ukraine re-entering Rodynske in Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026 at 6.5%, a unlikely. Resolution depends on ISW map evidence of Ukrainian control.
6.5%-1.0 pts 24h
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $168.3K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by December 31, 2026? | 6.5% | -1.0 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by September 30, 2026? | 2.5% | -0.5 |
The December 2026 deadline attracts the most trading interest, while the earlier September deadline is considered unlikely.
Context
Aug 20, 2026
Probability fell from 24.0% to 14.5% — a 9.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 19, 2026
Probability rose from 19.0% to 22.5% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 18, 2026
Probability fell from 22.0% to 19.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 16, 2026
Probability rose from 19.0% to 22.5% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 15, 2026
Probability fell from 28.0% to 19.0% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 30, 2026
Probability fell from 52.5% to 31.0% — a 21.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 29, 2026
Probability fell from 53.5% to 33.0% — a 20.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 27, 2026
Probability rose from 34.0% to 54.0% — a 20.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 26, 2026
Probability rose from 17.5% to 33.0% — a 15.5-point move over the past day.
The market has oscillated between 4.0% and 31.0% over its lifespan. It currently sits at 6.5%. A “Yes” resolution requires that shading on the ISW map — specifically marks for “Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours” or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” — shows some part of Rodynske (48.351541° N, 37.210747° E) under Ukrainian control. This shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, the shading must last until the next finalized ISW update. If ISW becomes unavailable, DeepStateMap is the fallback, then a consensus of credible reporting. A negotiated settlement that results in actual Ukrainian control also qualifies, but de jure announcements alone do not. Temporary map glitches are ignored, and once a qualifying condition is met later losses are disregarded. The most direct influences are new ISW map releases and any verified changes in control of Rodynske. The deadline for a positive resolution is Jan 1, 2027. Barring a change in the mapping source’s methodology, the price will react to whether Ukrainian forces are seen to advance into the town in a durable manner.
FAQ
What must happen for the market to resolve “Yes”?
The ISW map must show Ukrainian control of some part of Rodynske via its shading for reported gains or claimed counteroffensives, and that shading must survive the next daily update. If a negotiated settlement gives Ukraine actual control, that also qualifies.
What is the role of the ISW map?
The primary resolution source is the ISW Ukraine map. If it becomes permanently unavailable, the market turns to DeepStateMap and then to credible reporting.
Does Ukraine need to hold the territory until the end date?
No. Once a qualifying condition is met — that is, the map shows control and the shading persists for one full update cycle — any later loss of control does not change the “Yes” resolution.
What if the map shows a brief incursion that disappears?
The shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update. If it appears only in one update and is gone in the next, it does not count. Temporary glitches are also excluded.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice