Aug 17, 2026
Probability fell from 40.5% to 36.0% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Will Ukraine Re-enter Uspenivka by Year-End? Live Odds
Prediction markets price the chance of Ukrainian forces re-entering Uspenivka at 32.5%, a a substantial minority view but not dominant view. Resolution hinges on the Institute for the Study of War’s daily map updates.
32.5%+5.0 pts 24h
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31?
Updated · Volume $196.8K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31? | 32.5% | +5.0 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by September 30? | 1.7% | 0.0 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by May 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by March 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by April 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The headline outcome is the only one trading with meaningful volume; all other possibilities are remote.
Context
Aug 17, 2026
Probability fell from 42.0% to 39.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 16, 2026
Probability fell from 53.0% to 42.0% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 15, 2026
Probability fell from 53.5% to 43.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 14, 2026
Probability rose from 45.5% to 56.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 13, 2026
Probability rose from 35.5% to 49.5% — a 14.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 12, 2026
Probability fell from 41.0% to 36.5% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 9, 2026
Probability fell from 41.0% to 35.5% — a 5.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 8, 2026
Probability fell from 40.5% to 39.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 7, 2026
Probability rose from 27.5% to 40.5% — a 13.0-point move over the past day.
Trading puts the probability at 32.5%. The market has swung between 26.0% and 35.5% over its lifetime. A +5.0 pts shift in the last day indicate recent stability. The market resolves Yes if, before the deadline, the ISW map shows Ukrainian control of any part of Uspenivka and that shading persists through the next full ISW daily update. The specific layers that count are ‘Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours’ or ‘Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives’. Once a qualifying condition is met, any later loss of control is disregarded. If Ukraine gains actual control through a negotiated settlement, it also counts, provided it is not just a de jure announcement. The primary resolution source is the ISW map; if unavailable, DeepStateMap or credible reporting is used. Temporary map glitches are ignored. What moves the probability is the nearness of the deadline Jan 1, 2027 and the flow of ISW updates. Any time the ISW map shows the required shading and it holds through a full update cycle, the market resolves Yes. Absent that, the possibility of a peace deal that puts Ukraine in control of Uspenivka also keeps the scenario alive, though only actual control—not just an announcement—suffices. The market therefore tracks both military developments and diplomatic signals that might lead to a qualifying map change.
FAQ
What exactly triggers a 'Yes' resolution?
The ISW map must show Ukrainian control shading inside Uspenivka under the ‘Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours’ or ‘Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives’ layers, and that shading must remain visible through the next complete ISW daily update cycle. Any temporary glitch is ignored.
What if ISW stops updating its map?
If ISW becomes permanently unavailable, the market will rely on DeepStateMap for equivalent evidence. If both are gone, a consensus of credible reporting will determine the outcome.
Does a negotiated peace count even without map changes?
Yes, if Ukraine gains actual control of Uspenivka through a settlement. But a mere de jure announcement without physical control does not qualify.
Once Ukraine enters, can a later withdrawal change the result?
No. The first qualifying event locks in the resolution, regardless of what happens afterwards.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice