Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?: Odds & Probability

Prediction markets price Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027 at 11.5%.

11.5%0.0 pts 24h

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027?

Updated · Volume $3.7M

3%21%38%56%Aug 14Aug 18Aug 22Aug 26Aug 30
OutcomeProbability24h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027?11.5%0.0
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?5.5%0.0
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?0.0%0.0

The top 3 outcomes account for 100.0% of the total probability.

Context

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 3 tracked outcomes and $3.7M in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027, is priced at 11.5%.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice

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