Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?: Odds & Probability

Prediction markets price Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026 at 10.5%.

10.5%0.0 pts 24h

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?

Updated · Volume $2.9M

5%9%14%19%Jun 14Jun 22Jun 29Jul 7Jul 14
OutcomeProbability24h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?10.5%0.0
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?0.0%

The top 2 outcomes account for 10.5% of the total probability.

Context

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 2 tracked outcomes and $2.9M in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026, is priced at 10.5%.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice