Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027 at 8.5%.
8.5%-0.5 pts 24h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027?
Updated · Volume $4.3M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027? | 8.5% | -0.5 |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | 2.5% | -0.1 |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 3 outcomes account for 100.0% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 3 tracked outcomes and $4.3M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027, is priced at 8.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice