Sep 8, 2026
Probability rose from 3.6% to 6.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Will the US Annex Any Territory in 2026? Odds
As of 11 min ago, prediction markets give a 5.9% probability to the US annexing any territory in 2026—an outcome that hinges on an official government declaration of sovereignty.
5.9%0.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $157.0K
The 'Yes' outcome is unlikely, with the market overwhelmingly pricing in a 'No' resolution—thereby treating any annexation as a remote possibility.
Context
Sep 7, 2026
Probability fell from 5.1% to 3.6% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 22, 2026
Probability rose from 3.4% to 6.6% — a 3.3-point move over the past day.
Aug 21, 2026
Probability rose from 3.4% to 6.6% — a 3.2-point move over the past day.
The market's assessment has remained unlikely throughout the period. The line has shown little movement, reflecting a steady consensus that a formal annexation in 2026 is not in the cards. For a 'Yes' resolution, the United States must officially annex territory by a set deadline. That deadline is Jan 1, 2027. Annexation is defined as a formal declaration or legal act claiming sovereignty over land the US did not claim when the market launched. Historical instances like the Louisiana Purchase qualify; informal settler control does not. Barring such an act by the cutoff, the market resolves to 'No'. Official US government statements serve as the primary resolution source, though a consensus of credible reporting can also confirm the outcome. The only event that would materially change this probability is an actual move toward annexation—an executive order, a congressional resolution, or a treaty advancing a sovereignty claim. As the deadline approaches without such a step, the market's number mechanically drifts lower. Conversely, any signal that formal annexation is being seriously pursued could push the probability upward, but nothing in the trading activity so far suggests that is expected.
FAQ
What qualifies as an annexation under this market's rules?
An official US government declaration or legal act claiming sovereignty over territory that was not claimed at the time the market was created. The action must be formal; informal control or settler declarations do not count.
Does a military occupation or a purchase negotiation count?
No. Only a formal annexation—such as a congressional act or an executive proclamation asserting sovereignty—triggers a 'Yes' resolution. Mere occupation or ongoing negotiations are insufficient.
How is the outcome determined?
The primary source is official information from the US government. If that is ambiguous, a consensus of credible reporting can be used to ascertain whether a qualifying annexation occurred.
When does the market resolve?
The market resolves no later than Jan 1, 2027. If an annexation occurs before that date, it can resolve earlier.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice