Will US withdraw from NATO by 2027?: Odds & Probability

The market asks whether the United States will formally start the process of leaving NATO before 2027. A 'Yes' resolution requires Washington to submit a notice of withdrawal under Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Merely pulling out of NATO’s integrated military command structure would not be enough. The contract settles based on official statements from the US government or NATO, or, failing that, a consensus of credible news reports. As of now, traders assign a 3.1% probability to a withdrawal by the end of 2026. That is a low figure, suggesting the market views a near-term departure as unlikely, but it is not zero. The implied odds mean that for every $1 someone would win on a 'Yes' bet, they would have to risk roughly $31. Total trading volume on the main contract stands at about $6.25 million, which indicates a liquid enough market to take the price seriously. The market also trades contracts with earlier expiry dates, which gives a finer picture of how expectations shift over time. The chance of a withdrawal by April 30 or June 30 is priced at 0.0%. That means no one is willing to back an imminent announcement, even at very long odds. By August 31, the probability edges up to 1.4%. That small bump suggests some traders see a slightly higher, though still remote, possibility of action later in the year. The jump from 0% to 1.4% to 3.1% across the deadlines hints at a belief that any move toward withdrawal, if it happens, would more likely come after the summer rather than before. The overall message remains clear: the market does not expect a NATO exit to begin in the foreseeable future. Contracts trading at zero are particularly telling. It is not that an April or June announcement is impossible; rather, no market participant is willing to buy 'Yes' shares even at a price near zero. The absence of any bids at all suggests a strong consensus that an early move is off the table. The August contract, with its tiny 1.4% probability, marks the first point where traders are ready to put money behind a remote chance. By year-end 2026, the 3.1% cumulative probability reflects the collective judgment on the likelihood of a formal withdrawal notice being filed at any point before the deadline.