Oct 1, 2026
Probability rose from 1.8% to 3.5% — a 1.7-point move over the past day.
Will the US Withdraw from NATO? Live Market Odds
Markets price a US NATO exit before 2027 at 1.5%, a long shot.
1.5%-0.1 pts 24h
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
Updated · Volume $6.4M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | 1.5% | -0.1 |
| Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will US withdraw from NATO by August 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The market assigns virtually no chance to any other path.
Context
The forecast has idled at the margins, with 1.5% its latest reading. The chart prints a mostly horizontal line, barely stirring from rock-bottom. A 'Yes' requires a formal trigger: the United States must either initiate a withdrawal from NATO or submit an official notice of denunciation under Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Leaving the integrated military command does not qualify. Any such step counts even if legal or political challenges later stall its implementation. A consensus of credible reporting can settle the contract if official sources remain silent. The odds turn on a single act: a formal withdrawal notice from Washington, served before the deadline, which is Jan 1, 2027. Without it, the contract resolves as 'No.' The designated arbiters are official US government and NATO communiqués, with reputable media reporting as a backup. Nothing short of that specific action—no legislative vote, executive order, or summit declaration—will budge the price.
FAQ
What action triggers a 'Yes' resolution?
A 'Yes' requires the United States to formally initiate a NATO withdrawal or deliver an official denunciation notice under Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
Does leaving NATO's military command structure count?
No, only a full withdrawal notice or denunciation qualifies; a departure from the integrated command structure is insufficient.
What is the deadline for the US to act?
The trigger must occur before the market's settlement deadline. If no formal notice is given by then, the outcome is 'No'.
Who determines the outcome?
Resolution is based on official US government and NATO announcements. If those are absent, a consensus of credible media reporting may be used.
Can a court delay stop a 'Yes' resolution?
No. Any initiation of withdrawal or denunciation notice qualifies, even if judicial or political obstacles later block its execution.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice