Venezuela as 51st State: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give a 2.4% chance to Venezuela being annexed as the 51st U.S. state, a scenario that would require an official agreement announced before the end of 2026.
Updated · Volume $395.1K
The market overwhelmingly favors 'No,' while the chance of Venezuelan statehood is a long shot.
Context
The price has remained in remote territory, with 2.4% as of 9 min ago. The market resolves to 'Yes' if any part of Venezuela is formally annexed and becomes the 51st state by the end of the timeframe. An official agreement that is announced, even if its effective date is later, is sufficient for a 'Yes' resolution. Should a territory that includes no Venezuelan land—such as Puerto Rico or Washington, D.C.—be admitted as the 51st state during the market's window, the market resolves immediately to 'No.' The primary resolution source is information from the U.S. government, but a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. The market's deadline is Jan 1, 2027, after which it resolves if no qualifying event has occurred. The probability would shift in response to any formal U.S. government action or credible reports indicating movement toward annexation of Venezuelan territory, as well as to developments that render it less plausible, such as the admission of another state without Venezuelan land.
FAQ
What counts as annexation for this market?
Any formal addition of Venezuelan territory—even a portion—to the United States as the 51st state qualifies.
Does the annexation need to be completed by the deadline?
No. An official agreement announced within the timeframe is enough, regardless of when it takes effect.
What happens if another territory, like Puerto Rico, becomes the 51st state?
The market would resolve to 'No' immediately if any territory that contains no Venezuelan land is admitted as the 51st state.
How is the outcome determined?
Primarily from U.S. government information, but a consensus of credible reporting can also settle the market.
What is the deadline for this market?
The market covers events through Jan 1, 2027, and resolves then if no annexation occurs.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice