Sep 18, 2026
Probability rose from 94.5% to 97.7% — a 3.2-point move over the past day.
Will Xi Jinping Visit the US Before 2027? Odds & Probability
At 99.9%, prediction markets see a Xi Jinping visit to the US before 2027 as near-certain. A 'Yes' resolution requires that he physically enter US land or territorial waters by December 31, 2026.
99.3%-0.1 pts 24h
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?
Updated · Volume $2.8M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? | 99.9% | +0.1 |
| Will Xi Jinping visit US by October 31? | 99.9% | +0.2 |
| Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30? | 99.6% | -0.3 |
| Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24? | 99.6% | +0.0 |
| Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23? | 99.3% | -0.1 |
| Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 15? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The market overwhelmingly expects a Xi Jinping visit to the US before the 2027 cutoff.
Context
Sep 17, 2026
Probability rose from 93.3% to 96.8% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 17, 2026
Probability rose from 94.4% to 96.0% — a 1.7-point move over the past day.
Sep 16, 2026
Probability rose from 94.8% to 96.1% — a 1.3-point move over the past day.
Sep 16, 2026
Probability fell from 96.0% to 93.9% — a 2.2-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 14, 2026
Probability rose from 94.8% to 96.7% — a 1.9-point move over the past day.
Sep 14, 2026
Probability fell from 95.3% to 94.0% — a 1.3-point move over the past day.
Sep 6, 2026
Probability rose from 94.8% to 96.0% — a 1.2-point move over the past day.
Sep 5, 2026
Probability rose from 92.7% to 96.0% — a 3.3-point move over the past day.
Sep 4, 2026
Probability fell from 97.6% to 93.8% — a 3.8-point move over the past day.
The probability stands at 99.9%. Trading has ranged from 47.5% to 99.5%. In the past day, it moved -0.1 pts;
For a 'Yes' outcome, Xi Jinping must physically enter US terrestrial or maritime territory between now and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Airspace transit alone does not satisfy the criteria. Official information from the US or Chinese governments will be the primary resolution source, backed by a consensus of credible reporting if official channels are silent. The probability's path is tied to the formal deadline of Jan 1, 2027. Any confirmed trip announcement would prove decisive. The resolution standard—official statements or credible news agreement—defines how a visit is verified.
FAQ
What qualifies as a visit for this market?
Xi Jinping must physically enter US land or territorial waters. Airspace entry alone does not trigger a 'Yes' resolution.
When does the market close and resolve?
Any visit must occur by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. If no qualifying visit happens by then, the market resolves to 'No'.
How is the visit confirmed?
The primary resolution sources are official statements from the US or Chinese governments. If neither confirms a visit, a consensus of credible reporting is used.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice