Sep 6, 2026
Probability rose from 59.5% to 63.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?: Odds & Probability
Markets price a meeting between Xi Jinping and Sanae Takaichi by December 31, 2026 at 68.0%, a the favored outcome.
68.0%-0.5 pts 24h
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $100.4K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? | 68.0% | -0.5 |
| Will Xi meet with Takaichi by September 30, 2026? | 1.2% | 0.0 |
| Will Xi meet with Takaichi by July 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Xi meet with Takaichi by June 30, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The 'Yes' outcome is the clear focus, with all other possibilities amounting to extreme long shots.
Context
Sep 3, 2026
Probability fell from 60.5% to 53.5% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 2, 2026
Probability rose from 54.0% to 61.0% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 1, 2026
Probability fell from 61.0% to 53.0% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 31, 2026
Probability rose from 51.5% to 61.0% — a 9.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 30, 2026
Probability fell from 62.0% to 54.5% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 29, 2026
Probability rose from 57.5% to 62.0% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 28, 2026
Probability rose from 59.5% to 61.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 20, 2026
Probability rose from 37.5% to 46.0% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 28, 2026
Probability fell from 38.5% to 26.5% — a 12.0-point move over the past day.
The market-implied probability has ranged from 44.5% to 68.5%, and now sits at 68.0%. The market resolves to 'Yes' if Sanae Takaichi and Xi Jinping hold an in-person meeting with direct interaction between market creation and the deadline. A meeting requires an exchange of words, a handshake, or other clear personal engagement; simply being present at the same event without direct contact does not qualify. The determination of whether such a meeting occurred relies on a consensus of credible reporting. The clock ticks down to Jan 1, 2027. Any scheduled diplomatic gatherings or unexpected encounters between the two could shift the market, as could statements from their offices. The final outcome hinges on both a confirmed event and its acceptance by the consensus of reporters.
FAQ
What counts as a meeting?
A meeting requires in-person interaction such as a handshake, direct conversation, or exchange of words. Mere proximity or being in the same room without direct interaction does not qualify.
How is the meeting verified?
The resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting. If multiple reliable sources confirm a qualifying interaction, the market will resolve accordingly.
When does the market expire?
The resolution deadline is Jan 1, 2027. If no qualifying meeting has taken place by then, the market resolves to 'No'.
Who are the individuals involved?
The two individuals are Sanae Takaichi, a Japanese politician, and Xi Jinping, the President of China.
What happens if they meet after the deadline?
Only meetings that occur on or before the deadline count. Any meeting after that date has no effect.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice