Aug 23, 2026
Probability rose from 4.2% to 14.0% — a 9.8-point move over the past day.
Xi Jinping out before 2027: Odds & Probability
Markets price the likelihood that Xi Jinping is ousted as China’s Communist Party General Secretary before 2027 at 4.5%, a a long shot prospect.
4.5%+0.1 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $12.9M
The ‘Yes’ outcome is viewed as a long shot, leaving the overwhelming probability with the status quo.
Context
Trading in this contract has been subdued. The current level of 4.5% places it firmly in a long shot territory. The market resolves to ‘Yes’ if Xi Jinping is removed from his position as General Secretary for any length of time during the contract period. A removal is defined as resignation, dismissal, detention, disqualification, or any other event that prevents him from carrying out his duties. The resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting, with no single official arbiter. The contract’s fixed end date of Jan 1, 2027 means time decay is a factor. Shifts in the market price are driven by news that alters the perceived probability of his ouster before then. The resolution relies on a consensus of news reports, so shifts in the media landscape can influence trading.
FAQ
What counts as removal for this market?
Removal is defined broadly. It includes resignation, dismissal, detention, disqualification, or any circumstance that prevents Xi Jinping from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary, even if temporary.
How is the outcome determined?
There is no single official trigger. The market settles based on a consensus of credible reporting. If respected news outlets widely report that he has been removed, the market will resolve to Yes.
Does a brief removal trigger a Yes?
Yes. The rules specify ‘any length of time,’ so even a short-term ouster would cause the contract to settle in favor of Yes.
When does the market expire?
It covers events through Jan 1, 2027.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice