Sep 17, 2026
Probability rose from 82.0% to 92.2% — a 10.2-point move over the past day.
Xi Meets Lee Jae-Myung: Odds & Probability
Markets price a meeting between Xi Jinping and Lee Jae-Myung at 90.8% before the deadline, marking it as strongly favored. The contract watches for any direct personal interaction, such as a handshake or conversation, as defined in the rules.
90.8%-0.5 pts 24h
Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by December 31?
Updated · Volume $48.4K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by December 31? | 90.8% | -0.5 |
| Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by September 30? | 1.6% | +0.3 |
| Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by July 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by August 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The meeting is strongly favored to happen, while the other outcomes are all long shots.
Context
Sep 16, 2026
Probability fell from 94.3% to 82.0% — a 12.4-point move over the past day.
Sep 14, 2026
Probability fell from 96.1% to 90.8% — a 5.3-point move over the past day.
Sep 14, 2026
Probability fell from 95.3% to 91.7% — a 3.6-point move over the past day.
Sep 11, 2026
Probability rose from 92.5% to 96.0% — a 3.4-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 10, 2026
Probability rose from 89.2% to 96.6% — a 7.4-point move over the past day.
Sep 5, 2026
Probability fell from 95.8% to 93.0% — a 2.8-point move over the past day.
Sep 4, 2026
Probability fell from 95.5% to 92.8% — a 2.7-point move over the past day.
Aug 28, 2026
Probability fell from 96.3% to 93.5% — a 2.7-point move over the past day.
Aug 27, 2026
Probability fell from 95.9% to 94.0% — a 1.9-point move over the past day.
The contract has fluctuated between 82.0% and 97.5% over its lifetime. The price now sits at 90.8%. In the last day, it moved -0.5 pts. To resolve to Yes, the two leaders must have an in-person meeting with direct interaction—such as a handshake or conversation—before the deadline. Being in the same room without personal engagement does not qualify. Settlement relies on a consensus of credible reporting. The probability edges up or down as the deadline Jan 1, 2027 approaches without a confirmed encounter. Any credible report of a direct meeting instantly triggers a Yes resolution.
FAQ
What counts as a meeting for this market?
Any in-person encounter where Xi Jinping and Lee Jae-Myung interact directly—a handshake, exchange of words, or similar personal engagement—qualifies. Mere proximity without interaction does not.
How is the resolution decided?
A consensus of credible reporting. If reputable news outlets agree that a qualifying meeting took place, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it settles No at the deadline.
What happens at the deadline if no meeting is reported?
The market resolves to No. Only meetings occurring before that date count.
Does a phone call or virtual meeting count?
No. The definition requires an in-person encounter with direct interaction.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice