Xi Meets Lee Jae-Myung: Odds & Probability

Markets price a meeting between Xi Jinping and Lee Jae-Myung at 92.8% before the deadline, marking it as strongly favored. The contract watches for any direct personal interaction, such as a handshake or conversation, as defined in the rules.

92.8%+3.0 pts 24h

Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by December 31?

Updated · Volume $47.6K

82%88%94%100%Aug 17Aug 25Sep 1Sep 8Sep 16
OutcomeProbability24h
Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by December 31?92.8%+3.0
Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by September 30?1.8%-2.2
Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by July 31?0.0%0.0
Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by June 30?0.0%0.0
Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by August 31?0.0%0.0

The meeting is strongly favored to happen, while the other outcomes are all long shots.

Context

Sep 14, 2026

Probability fell from 96.1% to 90.8% — a 5.3-point move over the past day.

Sep 14, 2026

Probability fell from 95.3% to 91.7% — a 3.6-point move over the past day.

Sep 11, 2026

Probability rose from 92.5% to 96.0% — a 3.4-point move over the past day.

Sep 10, 2026

Probability rose from 89.2% to 96.6% — a 7.4-point move over the past day.

Sep 5, 2026

Probability fell from 95.8% to 93.0% — a 2.8-point move over the past day.

Show earlier updates

Sep 4, 2026

Probability fell from 95.5% to 92.8% — a 2.7-point move over the past day.

Aug 28, 2026

Probability fell from 96.3% to 93.5% — a 2.7-point move over the past day.

Aug 27, 2026

Probability fell from 95.9% to 94.0% — a 1.9-point move over the past day.

Aug 23, 2026

Probability fell from 97.2% to 92.0% — a 5.2-point move over the past day.

Aug 21, 2026

Probability rose from 88.5% to 96.6% — a 8.1-point move over the past day.

The contract has fluctuated between 84.0% and 99.4% over its lifetime. The price now sits at 92.8%. In the last day, it moved +3.0 pts. To resolve to Yes, the two leaders must have an in-person meeting with direct interaction—such as a handshake or conversation—before the deadline. Being in the same room without personal engagement does not qualify. Settlement relies on a consensus of credible reporting. The probability edges up or down as the deadline Jan 1, 2027 approaches without a confirmed encounter. Any credible report of a direct meeting instantly triggers a Yes resolution.

FAQ

What counts as a meeting for this market?

Any in-person encounter where Xi Jinping and Lee Jae-Myung interact directly—a handshake, exchange of words, or similar personal engagement—qualifies. Mere proximity without interaction does not.

How is the resolution decided?

A consensus of credible reporting. If reputable news outlets agree that a qualifying meeting took place, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it settles No at the deadline.

What happens at the deadline if no meeting is reported?

The market resolves to No. Only meetings occurring before that date count.

Does a phone call or virtual meeting count?

No. The definition requires an in-person encounter with direct interaction.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice

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