Oct 7, 2026
Probability rose from 4.5% to 6.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Zelenskyy Out as Ukraine President by 2026: Odds
Prediction markets assess Zelenskyy being out of office before 2027 as unlikely, with a 6.5% probability. The market resolves the moment an official resignation or removal is announced, even if effective later.
6.5%0.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $3.6M
The market overwhelmingly favors Zelenskyy remaining in office through 2026, with an early departure viewed as unlikely.
Context
The odds of Zelenskyy leaving power before the deadline have remained low, trading around 6.5%. In the past day, the probability shifted 0.0 pts,
The contract resolves to “Yes” if Zelenskyy ceases to be President of Ukraine at any moment between the market’s creation and the specified end date, Eastern Time. An announcement of resignation or removal before that deadline triggers an immediate “Yes” settlement, irrespective of when the departure takes effect. The primary resolution sources are official information from Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian government, though a consensus of credible reporting can also be used. Three formal conditions shape the probability. First, the resolution deadline of Jan 1, 2027 provides a fixed horizon. Second, any official announcement of resignation or removal would settle the market instantly at “Yes.” Third, resolution relies on designated sources—government statements or, if necessary, a consensus of credible reporting.
FAQ
What triggers a “Yes” resolution?
Any period where Zelenskyy is not President of Ukraine, even if temporary, between market creation and the end date. An announcement alone is enough if it comes before the deadline.
Does Zelenskyy actually have to leave office for a “Yes”?
No. The moment a resignation or removal is formally announced, the market resolves to “Yes,” regardless of the effective date.
What if there is conflicting information?
The market relies first on official information from Zelenskyy or Ukraine’s government. If those are unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may determine the outcome.
What is the cut-off date?
The market uses Eastern Time on Jan 1, 2027 as the exact deadline. Any event up to that moment counts.
Could the market resolve early?
Yes. If an announcement of his departure is made before the end date, the market resolves immediately.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice