Sep 8, 2026
Probability fell from 22.0% to 11.5% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Zhang Youxia Sentenced to Prison Before 2027: Market Odds
Prediction markets assign a 10.5% probability to Chinese General Zhang Youxia receiving a prison sentence by the end of 2026. The outcome is considered unlikely, with the market set to resolve based on official sources.
10.5%-1.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $164.3K
The 'Yes' outcome is viewed as an outside chance, while the market implicitly favors no sentencing before the 2027 deadline.
Context
Sep 7, 2026
Probability rose from 9.5% to 19.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 21, 2026
Probability fell from 21.5% to 10.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 20, 2026
Probability rose from 8.5% to 21.5% — a 13.0-point move over the past day.
The probability of Zhang Youxia being jailed has fluctuated during the market's lifespan. Currently at 10.5%, it has traded between 6.5% and 24.0%. Over the last day, it moved -1.0 pts;
The market resolves to 'Yes' if Zhang Youxia is sentenced to any jail or prison time before 11:59 PM on December 31, 2026. Any sentencing qualifies, regardless of subsequent appeals or modifications. If no such sentence occurs by that cutoff, the market resolves to 'No'. The primary resolution source is official information from the Chinese government and law enforcement, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. For the 'Yes' outcome to materialize, an official sentencing that includes incarceration must be confirmed by the deadline Dec 31, 2026. The resolution depends on formal announcements from Chinese authorities or, in their absence, consistent credible journalism. No other specific triggering events are defined in the market's rules.
FAQ
What qualifies as a prison sentence in this market?
Any legally imposed term of incarceration in a jail or prison, regardless of length, and even if it is later overturned on appeal.
What is the final deadline for a qualifying event?
The market checks for a sentence on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM. If no sentence has been handed down by then, the market resolves to 'No'.
How is the outcome determined?
The primary source is official information from the Chinese government or law enforcement. If that is unavailable, a consensus of credible news reporting can be used.
Does a sentence other than prison, such as house arrest or a fine, count?
No. Only a sentence to jail or prison time meets the criteria; alternative penalties do not trigger a 'Yes' resolution.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice